How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.
🧵Thread:
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.
🧵Thread:
Comments
i just scratched a surface a bit
Christ alive.
China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
The biggest loser from the falling oil prices is not Russia, and not OPEC - it's the U.S. shale oil industry. Oil production costs in the U.S. are higher. This means that, if global oil prices fall below $50, part of the U.S. oil production will be wiped off
Russia continues to face high hidden unemployment, with many workers nominally employed but on unpaid leave or downtime. Rosstat estimated hidden unemployment at 4.7 million in Q4 2024, or over 6% of the workforce. This brings the total to about 9%
Lower oil prices = lower revenues, full-stop.
Discounts may not be of the same nominal level, but they will be proportional. Some oil is being produced at cost of 50$; good luck with running that when the market hits that rate, give or take a sanction-evading discount..
Then again russians who can't afford food and/or vodka have been known to insist on changes. 108 years ago they even managed the type of successful color revolution Putin fears.