Slovakia's PM Fico (Smer, NI) said he wants a snap election or a gov't coalition reshuffle if his coalition partners Hlas (NI) and SNS (NI) won't re-assemble a reliable parliamentary majority. Until yesterday, bookmakers gave a 2025 snap election a ~25% chance. This bet is currently not on offer. - ThreadSky

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medzihorsky.bsky.social • 47 days ago

Slovakia's PM Fico (Smer, NI) said he wants a snap election or a gov't coalition reshuffle if his coalition partners Hlas (NI) and SNS (NI) won't re-assemble a reliable parliamentary majority.

Until yesterday, bookmakers gave a 2025 snap election a ~25% chance. This bet is currently not on offer.

Comments

timhaughton.bsky.social•47 days ago

Bluff, threat or actual desire? Lots of risk for Fico to go for early elections. A lot of business (in both senses) can still be done without a robust parliamentary majority and not sure he has such a good narrative at the moment for a campaign. Juraj, prajem Ti stastny novy rok.

medzihorsky.bsky.social•47 days ago

Simply another option on the table, I'd say. The muddling through is starting to hurt in the polls. A new coalition with KDH and/or Sz would be preferable and could become easier to reach. Plus, there's the trial of the shooting suspect, and the rumored Trump visit …

Štastný Nový rok aj Tebe, Tim!

medzihorsky.bsky.social•47 days ago

Plus, there's the upcoming trial of the PM-shooting suspect—of which nothing has been announced yet—and the rumored Trump visit to Bratislava that may or may not involve a summit like that of 2005. Smer could benefit from both in the snap elections campaign.

medzihorsky.bsky.social•47 days ago

Latest polling suggests Smer (NI), Hlas (NI), and KDH (EPP) as perhaps the least complex option. However, KDH is split on this.

Plus, the math can change drastically given that quite a few parties hover near the threshold: D (EPP), Szövetség (EPP), ex-OĽaNO (EPP), SNS (NI) et al.

medzihorsky.bsky.social•47 days ago

As this older* comment—by, I assume the journalist P. Tkačenko—argues, snap elections do seem likely, the question is whether there's enough time to call and hold them in 2025, as the political processes involved would need time.

* From two weeks ago.

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