No, I think he will bomb Iran. - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

derparrot.bsky.social • 9 days ago

No, I think he will bomb Iran.

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Do you think that Trump will invade Canada/Greenland as a distraction from any economic disaster caused by the tariffs in the same way that Argentina invaded the Falklands to distract the populace from economic problems the Galtieri regime suffered in the 1980s

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snegglepuss.bsky.social•9 days ago

That or Panama. Maybe some drone strikes in Mexico

greggiefella.bsky.social•9 days ago

Sounds about right. Trump and his base talk about being “anti-war” except when it comes to Iran. But it would only be limited to a bombing campaign; ground forces anywhere would be a bridge too far.

derek-the-viking.bsky.social•9 days ago

I agree with Kraut. Trump hasn't had enough time to condition Americans to the idea of invading Canada. That will take years of demonisation. Greenland will be easier though. Even if Americans don't want it - it will be a near-painless invasion. It will be like how Crimea was stolen by Russia.

derek-the-viking.bsky.social•9 days ago

I see Greenland happening before the end of Trumps 2nd term. Or not long after the beginning of his 3rd term.

brandever.bsky.social•8 days ago

I don't think bombing Iran wouldn't do much distraction-wise, most Americans just assume we are constantly bombing the Middle East anyway. Most Americans wouldn't be aware that we bombed Yemen if it weren't for the Signal fiasco, and even still I think most just don't care.

groundloop.bsky.social•8 days ago

Maybe if you framed it as: We are hunting Saddam Hussein down for faking 9/11.

maimonides7.bsky.social•8 days ago

Don't be stupid. Houthis are getting bombed till they disappear. Which is less than a month away, Sonny Boy.

brandever.bsky.social•8 days ago

I don't think you understand what my comment was talking about. I was only speaking about how an attack may or may not distract the American public from the terrible job Trump is doing, not the effectiveness of an attack militarily, or even politically on a global scale.

tyrangle.bsky.social•8 days ago

I binge geopolitics channels and even I forgot we were in Afghanistan when Biden announced our withdrawal a few years ago. For the most part we get to just treat what’s happening in the world like a TV show - not real life with real life consequences. Easy to lose track of what we’re bombing.

mschemistrymd.bsky.social•9 days ago

Bombing Iran would work as a distraction and he very well might do it in that way. But yk what? I actually believe him and his ilk that they unironically do want to take Canada and Greenland. And he might do it, there are zero guardrails in place, only his day to day fancy. It won't be some 4D chess

kegman83.bsky.social•9 days ago

Except, you know, the Canadian Military, and any military that would aid Canada. And despite what Americans might think, Canadians are exceedingly well armed and happy to live in Arctic conditions.

mschemistrymd.bsky.social•9 days ago

The Canadian military stands no chance of offering more than token formal organised resistance, the geography and correlation of forces make that prospect hopeless. Obv the conflict then turns unconventional and becomes a horrific bloody attrition for the Americans. Not conventional military tho...

kegman83.bsky.social•9 days ago

I think the US military would be unpleasantly surprised with an enemy force that looks and talks like them, uses similar equipment and contains a non trivial amount of troops who've previously seen combat in places like Afghanistan.

kegman83.bsky.social•9 days ago

Could they stand toe to toe? No. Of course not. But has the US military fought a near-peer enemy in cities with 250+ years on constant building filled with partisans? It would make Fallujah look like a cakewalk. And I haven't even talked about the Quebecoise.

mschemistrymd.bsky.social•9 days ago

1) Canada isn’t a near peer. They might have high-tech equipment but just nowhere near enough.
2) yeah the unconventional fighting would be brutal, not sure about the conventional though, as all logistics, C&C etc pretty much collapses on day one of the conflict.

mschemistrymd.bsky.social•9 days ago

The occupation would be insanely hard costly, and impossible to achieve in the more remote areas of the country. No doubt about it, the potential for guerrilla warfare and resistance is huge. Just wouldn’t count on proper battles or frontlines etc. That’s kinda hard to keep up against America.

kegman83.bsky.social•9 days ago

Not to mention the US shares the largest UNGUARDED border in the world with Canada. There would be a terrible insurgency in the US, and they'd have an extremely sympathetic population.

mschemistrymd.bsky.social•9 days ago

Yeah there is no organised military aid coming to Canada.
There just isn't, it's a matter of force projection and naval/areal capabilities. No nation on earth could perform an operation like that with acceptable levels of risks. At best we're talking intel and maybe limited special ops/instructors.

leo424.bsky.social•8 days ago

I honestly think China is gonna make a move on Taiwan before he does that
He prob just gonna bomb Yemen until then and if China takes too long he gonna do some small shit with Iran maybe trying to target the oil that goes to China to force them to act out their plan earlier

jasper-rocket.bsky.social•9 days ago

Yes. That is what’s going to happen. He’s been itching for it.

kiymon.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'm guessing the unpopularity of invading allies is why he switched from talking about that to annihilating Iran.
Even with his own cult, he couldn't drum up enough support for it.

alexalutor.bsky.social•9 days ago

and cartels

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