it is absolutely wild to stake your political future on something thats barely a majority ~within the party~ - ThreadSky

isaiahbishop.bsky.social • 3 days ago

it is absolutely wild to stake your political future on something thats barely a majority ~within the party~

"Separatism is dividing Alberta" is a phenomenon almost entirely contained within the ranks of Danielle Smith's party supporters. www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

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quaxquax.bsky.social•3 days ago

Shades of Brexit.

thebluemage.bsky.social•3 days ago

That presumes that Smith sees anything outside the party as relevant to her political future. Or as Albertan at all.

isaiahbishop.bsky.social•3 days ago

Once again doug ford can show you the light on solving a corruption scandal with "buck a beer" nonsense and removing perfectly good bike lanes without trying to implode the country

mrbtx.bsky.social•3 days ago

doug ford is actually savvy though

cjpberry.bsky.social•3 days ago

It gets so much worse for the UCP though. That wave of Calgary Schoolers are great at channeling rage, but they have never been…great facilitators of conversations. Fair?

Smith comes from that…broadcasting tradition. It isn’t about listening. It’s about the grassroots speaking. It’s one way.

cjpberry.bsky.social•3 days ago

So, Smith is subject to constant review by the most hardcore of the UCP partisans. She is viewed as a channel, a broadcaster of grievance and white hot rage, not of thoughtful negotiation and collaborative elan.

And I’m not sure if she would have ever picked up the skill.

cjpberry.bsky.social•3 days ago

I don’t see a Lazy-Boy Re-Kleiner in the UCP’s future. Klein understood the median and the APC were structured for the median. He was hammered, but got it.

Given Smith’s performance to date, and she may surprise us all, she couldn’t even if she wanted to.

I might be misjudging her abilities.

troyliss.bsky.social•3 days ago

I don’t think she can pivot to the middle. I think she’s legitimately pickled her brain in very online, MAGA-influenced discourse. Her only move is the double-down.

cjpberry.bsky.social•3 days ago

My first intro to Game Theory was from a Calgary Schooler, long before I attended university. (I’d later take the course…the book was better than the movie).

I don’t think Smith took the course. She was already on TV by then. So everything that follows wouldn’t be known to that set.

cjpberry.bsky.social•3 days ago

Let’s say that I’m a hipster on this.

Okay: she’s supposed to build the decision tree backwards from the optimal leaf, and then imagine the optimal leaf. And then she is supposed to empathize with the counter-party. And then make a sequence of actions accordingly.

voltageanddoltage.bsky.social•3 days ago

If the referendum is on a straight majority ballot it's never going to pass. If they put it on some sort of weird region-based vote that overemphasizes rural votes that's a recipe for passing secession with both of your major metros and over half of your population pissed off and not onboard.

olenargy.bsky.social•3 days ago

Illegal under the clarity act

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