DWP is using a sleight of hand in its disability benefit cuts impact assessment: Actual increase in poverty is closer to 400,000, not the 250,000 in the impact assessment. Quick thread explaining why. 🧵1/7 - ThreadSky

iainkporter.bsky.social • 38 days ago

DWP is using a sleight of hand in its disability benefit cuts impact assessment: Actual increase in poverty is closer to 400,000, not the 250,000 in the impact assessment.

Quick thread explaining why. 🧵1/7

Comments

davefinch.bsky.social•38 days ago

Appears to be something similar with spending cuts. New PIP and UC health changes equate to £7bn a year cuts in total, offset by increased standard element and reversal of previous changes to WCA descriptors, giving the £4.5bn net cut.

iainkporter.bsky.social•31 days ago

Yes absolutely right - this applies to all the Govt's net spending cuts figures and any net impact figures (eg average losses, number of people losing) in the impact assessments.

laislabonita.bsky.social•31 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue pls

unroll.skywriter.blue•31 days ago

The thread as a shareable webpage: https://skywriter.blue/pages/did:plc:f266dcopewrhctjfuxfp5stb/post/3llcbicmaq22k.

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fionasaveournhs.bsky.social•37 days ago

Can we not take them to court or the ECHR for:
A) Using this as a money saving exercise, not to help people to work as stated. Proved by the fact that when they were told nit wasn't saving enough money, they increased the changes to welfare again.
B) Human rights.

angels4peace.bsky.social•36 days ago

The UN clearly stated that the Tories’ decimation (2010 onwards) broke Human Rights Law. Nothing was ever done about it.

fionasaveournhs.bsky.social•36 days ago

We have to keep shouting, though. The only reason they are putting it to a vote is that they know what their doing would be judged as breaking our own human rights laws, but going through a vote changes the law.

charlierad.bsky.social•38 days ago

I’ll let you know what, if anything, is shared as a result of this FOI re Impact Assessments related to the Pathways to Work paper

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/impact_assessments_related_to_pa#outgoing-1830343

circeseawitch.bsky.social•38 days ago

Thank you, I've just brought this up on another post - they are fudging the numbers, but according to their own paperwork it will affect so many more.

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

There are 3 separate impacts shown at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/67e3fa664038ca2e94411fef/spring-statement-2025-health-and-disability-benefit-reforms-impacts.pdf

Changes to PIP increase poverty by 300,000 (Table B2) 2/7

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

Changes to rates in Universal Credit increase poverty by 50,000 (Table B3) 3/7

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

Reversing the previous Government’s planned changes to Work Capability Assessment (WCA) descriptors (which never happened in the end) reduces poverty by 150,000 (Table B4) 4/7

sharonimo55.bsky.social•38 days ago

"reduces" poverty ??? But 300,000 people who receive PIP and LCWRA will lose LCWRA once the criteria is changed to depend on qualifying for PIP and PIP will depend on a minimum of 4 points in one activity.

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

The net effect of the three policies is an increase in poverty of 250,000 (Table B1) 5/7

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

BUT, this means the total effect of just policies 1 and 2 (i.e. the main cuts announced last week and today) is an increase in poverty of between 350,000 (i.e. 300k from Table B2 plus 50k from Table B3) and 400,000 (i.e. 250k from Table B1 plus 150k from Table B4). 6/7

iainkporter.bsky.social•38 days ago

In summary: The 250k net poverty rise in impact assessment is extra to an assumed 150k rise that previous Conservative plans would have created - even they never happened. But DWP has assumed that increase was already on the books and added to it. Real poverty impact is 400k. 7/7

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