We have a sorta reference with Milei where the economy is ass but people are expecting it to get better because of his shock therapy but unclear if that holds and Argentinian economic expectations are obviously not American ones
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the Milei case also has the significant difference that the economy was legitimately completely ass before he came into office (to the point where you could argue it was a net improvement on some metrics despite still being ass) which does not apply in the US context
And like another thing is mass deportations and heavy tariffs are like cooked up in a lab to inflict severe economic pain at
(1) newly immigrant constituencies
(2) business elites (losing workers and getting hit with new costs/shortages
(3) inflation voters (unpleasantness/shortages/prices)
Even if he cuts out exceptions for big businesses who bribe him, mass deportations will just turn into Alabama HB 56. A culture of fear where they simply don't show up to work.
I've seen people unironically praise Milei for essentially zero-ing out the national debt. (though as others have said the bar is so low for Argentina that anything would be an improvement)
Such high inflation and such extremely high levels of public spending that cutting it brings down inflation (duh) and the people are going to expect it.
Note: I am NOT a Milei Fan. He has gutted the state's capabilities. Like the Dengue Outbreak.
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(1) newly immigrant constituencies
(2) business elites (losing workers and getting hit with new costs/shortages
(3) inflation voters (unpleasantness/shortages/prices)
Such high inflation and such extremely high levels of public spending that cutting it brings down inflation (duh) and the people are going to expect it.
Note: I am NOT a Milei Fan. He has gutted the state's capabilities. Like the Dengue Outbreak.
Trump's tariffs are going to be radioactive within 6 months and reignite inflation.