For @thespectator1828.bsky.social, I write about the existing peace plans for Ukraine. They are doomed to fail because they completely ignore the key causes of the war: identity and ideology. Here is what the West should ultimately do instead of pointless arguments about NATO, guarantees and borders - ThreadSky

efinkel.bsky.social • 7 days ago

For @thespectator1828.bsky.social, I write about the existing peace plans for Ukraine. They are doomed to fail because they completely ignore the key causes of the war: identity and ideology. Here is what the West should ultimately do instead of pointless arguments about NATO, guarantees and borders

Comments

carlolevi.bsky.social•5 days ago

This war was never about "ideology and identity".

carlolevi.bsky.social•5 days ago

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/04/01/a-devil-s-bargain

rosemmason.bsky.social•7 days ago

Cd read only a small bit of it bc it's paywalled, but what I'm interested in is what you mean by "identity," something Serhii Plokhy & others have written abt—that Ru has long had an identity problem; that it doesn't know what it is & for that reason doesn't know what it isn't: UA. Am I close? Thanx

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

With regards to Ukraine, the mainstream RU identity narrative has no problem at all, they believe it should be theirs, if not formally then de facto. I've written an entire book about this

rosemmason.bsky.social•7 days ago

"Intent to Destroy: Russia’s Two-Hundred-Year Quest to Dominate Ukraine"? OK, I pre-ordered the paperbound that's due out in Jan. 2026, on Dec. 15, 2024. Is this an updated ed. of the earlier hardbound or are they the same? If the same I'll cancel the p'bound and order the h'bound. Thanks again.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

The same. Hardcover came out last November, paperback should be out very late 2025 or early 2026

rosemmason.bsky.social•7 days ago

OK, many thanks, Prof. Finkel. Just canceled the paper and ordered the hardbound, which I'm told is to arrive Wed., April 2. Looking forward to it.

jon-richardson.bsky.social•7 days ago

I look forward to reading it when our library has access tomorrow. Pity you have to publish in that place which is full of articles like this

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/americans-are-right-to-hate-us/

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

It's not paywalled, you can read it now

jon-richardson.bsky.social•7 days ago

Thanks!

allyin.bsky.social•7 days ago

All conflicts are not misunderstandings.

Some are well understandings.

jacekr.bsky.social•7 days ago

Good points Eugene. But on the top of your argumentation there is one more: putin and his circle want the return of the Soviet Union, which means enslavement of half of Europe. So the only path to peace is when this regime falls, and russia falls apart into smaller states.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

Whether we like it or not, Russia is currently not going anywhere. If you have a secret plane of how to break it apart, I would love to hear.

jacekr.bsky.social•7 days ago

You’re joking, but I’m serious. And with me millions of other Central and East Europeans suppressed by ruZZians throughout generations. And that’s another fundamental truth the West needs to understand, before drawing any appeasement plans.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

I am not joking, I am being realistic. Russia is not going anywhere and if you know how to break it apart, I would like to hear

mrhappyonbsky.bsky.social•7 days ago

Maybe same way that worked in the Cold War:
Win the arms race, let russia collapse economically while they try to win the race (they will overcommit because of ideology)?

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

For that you need consistency, commitment and resources, especially in the US

polonsky.bsky.social•7 days ago

100 nukes for Ukraine, oil embargo until russia leaves sevastopol, and khuilo’s regime is done.
But with the new white house, this is all much harder.

invicta1924.bsky.social•7 days ago

This is part off the problem.
But i dont see russia shange it rethetoric, and education.

jp1000.bsky.social•6 days ago

I'd be willing to bet that if the average Russian citizen which doesn't include any of the wealthy I'm not talking about billionaire wealthy I'm just talking about upper middle class wealthy, would jump at the chance to see Putin dead and a path to democracy.

jp1000.bsky.social•6 days ago

In that way Russian society isn't that different from American society. The wealthy have no issue with stepping on the poor on their way to more wealth

jp1000.bsky.social•6 days ago

A little bit of a typo there, I meant to say nobody with money. Which is the majority of Russians. Upper middle class and the billionaire class don't care about anyone else

hjbodewes.bsky.social•7 days ago

What the west should do is finally defeat ruSSia.

What ruSSia should do is get the f... out of all of Ukraine and all other military operations elsewhere.
And then be ashamed, apologise, and say "nie wieder", and keep that promise.

marsanges.bsky.social•7 days ago

I am not sure i understand that argument. (Article behind paywall). In Korea, a decades old truce is holding in spite of unsolved ideological issues, based on deterrence. Why cant that work in Ukraine too?

mariaseyrig.bsky.social•7 days ago

1001 historical reasons why only force will work to stop russia, by essayist Kost Elisevich.👇 A complete dismantling of their country is needed or they will always come back.
https://kostelisevich.substack.com/

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

The key point: The issues policymakers in Washington, London and Brussels are focusing on – NATO, territory, and peacekeeping troops – are not the main causes of the war and so cannot be the keys to peace. Russia is driven by ideology. The focus of the peace plans should switch to what matters.

kormych.bsky.social•7 days ago

It’s a great piece, Professor. But, Houston, we have a problem. Addressing ideology is nothing short of the regime change in Russia.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

I don't think it requires regime change. Look at Galicia and how the perception of Galicia changed among Russians in just one generation under the same regime. But it is definitely not easy, I agree

kormych.bsky.social•7 days ago

I’m afraid that legacy Galician methods of making the land toxic to occupiers may raise some concerns in the West.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

True, although I suspect some Russians are already shifting their views of Ukraine because of the resistance. But the shift should come from above, it's too long to wait till it happens from below

kormych.bsky.social•7 days ago

At this point, they still believe they can finish off Ukraine. Besides, Russian military culture (unlike, let’s say, the US or British) has no respect for valiant resistance.

simonbm.bsky.social•7 days ago

But isn’t that because in developing their new imperialism they went back to the Russian empire of the 19th C? Likely because they remember the Soviet Union and can hardly take that as a model.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

Soviet Union was not that different when it came to imperialism. But yes, the issue is that they look to the past rather than the future

simonbm.bsky.social•7 days ago

My point is that people who lived in the Soviet Union don’t remember it as paradise and for imperialists it is not a good model in that it ended.

destcygnusx1.bsky.social•7 days ago

But isn’t that the rub? How can extreme ideology be “fixed” in this context? Short-term talks won’t. Only long term inability of ideology to deliver anything, and instead only wreck itself on the rocks of opposition. Or, occupation and denazification program. The fixes are hard, we need to step up.

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

If you read the piece, you might see some of the answers

destcygnusx1.bsky.social•7 days ago

Indeed. Force Rus to deal with Ukraine as primary negotiation interface, and normalization including condition of reversing anti-Ukr propaganda and education about Ukr being Russian. Both excellent points. I'm afraid implementation of the latter will only be possible after change of Kremlin regime.

alonpinkas.bsky.social•7 days ago

Excellent article

efinkel.bsky.social•7 days ago

תודה

kitboller2000.bsky.social•6 days ago

The main reason for Putin's invasion is trillions worth of mineral resources and oil and gas reserves comparable to Norway's. Another factor is Russia's desire to restore the Soviet sphere of influence.

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