Does aerial bombing work? [THREAD] - ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

profpaulpoast.bsky.social • 495 days ago

Does aerial bombing work?

[THREAD]

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I think we have 70 years of history that says it is only effective in a war when going after actual military targets, and not civilians

unless you just want to kill people

probably the most effective Strategic bombing in WW2 was going after German oil refineries, not people

sagebiel.bsky.social•495 days ago

@charles-ex.bsky.social @ginger146.bsky.social long

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

Of course, I'm asking this question because Israel increased the intensity of its bombing campaign in Gaza,...
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/israel-intensifies-bombing-and-ground-operations-sending-gaza-into-internet-blackout

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

...a bombing campaign that has been ongoing for a few weeks, with thousands of bombs dropped.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/25/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-airstrikes.html

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

Tactically, a stated goal of the bombing is to degrade Hamas' military infrastructure.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-b084e9c453cc99f7bec6f66d7b5913d9

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

But it also seems, especially given the large scale of the bombing on a relatively small area, that the goal is to simply inflict punishment for the October 7 attacks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67056981

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

The key question is, will it work? Can we expect large scale aerial bombing to work for achieving Israel's objectives? That is where the international relations scholarship on strategic bombing can prove useful.

profpaulpoast.bsky.social•495 days ago

We can start with Robert Pape's 1996 book, "Bombing to Win"

https://www.amazon.com/Bombing-Win-Coercion-Cornell-Security/dp/0801483115

whowhatnow56.bsky.social•495 days ago

@lawnerd.bsky.social

ndmlees.bsky.social•495 days ago

Great thread. But what role could selection effects play? Do states use aerial punishment strategies when they lack better options?

casmilus.bsky.social•495 days ago

Is Edward Luttwak on BlueSky? He's spent time analysing the evidence on this.

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