profpaulpoast.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

This week's @wpr.bsky.social column wasn't about illustrating general IR concepts, so much as it was about addressing a pressing current issue. But I did draw a bit from some of my recent research on alliances, primarily NATO specifically. Specifically...

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

This week's @wpr.bsky.social column wasn't about illustrating general IR concepts, so much as it was about addressing a pressing current issue. But I did draw a bit from some of my recent research on alliances, primarily NATO specifically. Specifically...

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

The first of a two-part reflection on the US relationship with Europe (with next week focused on Ukraine). The US isn’t abandoning NATO

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

The relationship will change, but the US isn't abandoning NATO. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social.

submitted 2 days ago • 10 comments

A whirlwind week left observers writing the trans-Atlantic alliance’s eulogy. But the US, even under Trump, isn’t interested in abandoning Europe or NATO, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

The relationship will change, but the US isn't abandoning NATO. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social.

submitted 2 days ago • 10 comments

IR Book of the Week! "The Market in Global International Society" by Barry Buzan & Robert Falkner. If states are in a society, rather than an anarchic system of autonomy, that society is underpinned by global markets. Merging of IPE & English School IR.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

If the War in Ukraine did nothing else for Russians, it convinced them that Russia is Great Again. Data from recent @global-affairs.bsky.social & Levada survey.

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

I think Trump will soon have his "Tucker Carlson Moment" (i.e. realization that Putin has a weird-history obsession with Ukraine)

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

This draft agreement of Trump w/Ukraine, giving US control of ~50% of Ukraine's natural resources, is an example of @profpaulpoast.bsky.social claim that Trump is a 19thC president- I could see USG demanding this from say a Latin American country in 1890s. www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

How many troops should Europe commit to Ukraine? What role should they take? As Dan Reiter and I argued a few years ago, don't rely on mere "tripwires". When it comes to forward deployed troops, go big or stay home.

submitted 5 days ago • 6 comments

How many troops should Europe commit to Ukraine? What role should they take? As Dan Reiter and I argued a few years ago, don't rely on mere "tripwires". When it comes to forward deployed troops, go big or stay home.

submitted 5 days ago • 6 comments

ICYMI: Trump is an enDOGEnous shock to the international system (h/t @yusufimaadkhan.com)

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

For those wanting me to elaborate on these points, I'll do so in my next @wpr.bsky.social column.

submitted 6 days ago • 7 comments

As someone with a forthcoming book on NATO, I particularly like hot take #2 ;)

submitted 7 days ago • 2 comments

My "Munich Security Conference" Hot Takes: - Europe will be fine. - The US isn't abandoning NATO. - Current Ukraine-Russia status quo will likely be final agreement outcome.

submitted 7 days ago • 12 comments

International Relations Concepts Illustrated in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column: - Levels of Analysis - Polarity and System level Explanations - Status seeking by declining states Overall argument: Trump is the result of a return to multipolarity (& worries over relative decline).

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

"Imposing tariffs, making threats and seeking territory are all things we would expect from a state that perceives itself as losing status on the international stage." Why Trump doesn't matter, in @wpr.bsky.social.

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

It’s critical for observers of international affairs to not overstate Trump’s specific impact, @profpaulpoast.bsky.social writes. Despite his best efforts, Trump can only steer US global leadership in the direction it was already going: down.

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Some see Trump as a threat to international order or the cause of US decline. Others think he will make America "great" again on the world stage. Such views give Trump too much credit. He's more symptom than cause, as I explain in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Actually, you can shoot values Or, more accurately, be motivated by values to shoot

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

IR Book of the Week! "Cooperative Complexity" by @rickyclark.bsky.social. International Organizations facilitate cooperation between states...and increasingly other international organizations. Such "scaling" would seem efficient, but that's often not the case.

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Some are reading the below remark by Hegseth as de facto US abandonment of NATO. I don't see it that way. First, he also said he expects the alliance to "endure for generations to come". Second, I see the remark as saying, "the US wants to focus on China"

submitted 10 days ago • 10 comments

Hegseth isn't wrong. I've long thought the outcome could be more a "frozen conflict" along existing battle lines, rather than a return to pre-2022 (let alone pre-2014) borders

submitted 11 days ago • 7 comments

Nationalism is a powerful force. Survey data from @global-affairs.bsky.social & Levada show growth in "Russian Pride" over time. Most notable to me are the rise, since the early post-Cold War era, of pride in Russia's "political influence in the world" and "economic achievements".

submitted 11 days ago • 4 comments

It seems my lasting legacy, thanks to @merriam-webster.com, is to be forever associated with the word "disputatious"

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

It seems my lasting legacy, thanks to @merriam-webster.com, is to be forever associated with the word "disputatious"

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

What was that old saying about professionals and logistics?

submitted 12 days ago • 4 comments

- Exit a global climate change agreement - Impose steel tariffs - Obsessed with national building in the Middle East Is it me, or did Trump find the George W Bush playbook?

submitted 12 days ago • 3 comments

“we live in a world more like the 18th and 19th centuries, not the superpower rivalry of the Cold War.” That statement wasn't by Trump or Rubio. It was John Kerry, when he was Obama's Secretary of State. Gives a different perspective on Trump's "19th Century Presidency" fascination.

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

“we live in a world more like the 18th and 19th centuries, not the superpower rivalry of the Cold War.” That statement wasn't by Trump or Rubio. It was John Kerry, when he was Obama's Secretary of State. Gives a different perspective on Trump's "19th Century Presidency" fascination.

submitted 13 days ago • 3 comments

"focusing on Trump’s actions against foreign aid misses a larger point. Arguments for giving humanitarian and development aid...have never held much sway in U.S. foreign policy." ICYMI: My latest for @wpr.bsky.social

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

"focusing on Trump’s actions against foreign aid misses a larger point. Arguments for giving humanitarian and development aid...have never held much sway in U.S. foreign policy." ICYMI: My latest for @wpr.bsky.social

submitted 13 days ago • 1 comment

THE 👏 NATIONAL 👏DEBT 👏DOESN’T👏WORK👏THAT👏WAY👏

submitted 13 days ago • 7 comments

Need a case study for when "realpolitik" and "idealpolitik" point in the same direction? Then look at Foreign Aid.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

Stated differently, the Project 2025 folks are nearing the “find out” stage

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

International Relations Concepts Illustrated in my latest @wpr.bsky.social column: - Soft power - Prestige - Role of values in world politics Overall argument: Current actions against USAID just latest in a long history of foreign aid not being a major priority for US policy.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Regarding the NIH funding cuts to universities: this is why I have long held that College sports, particularly football, matter. Get ready for the reactions in the great states of Alabama and Ohio when their respective flagship universities say, “well, I guess we need to close up shop”

submitted 15 days ago • 3 comments

"Giving aid might be what is done by the leader of the free world, but not if that leader would rather be left alone." Key argument in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

"Giving aid might be what is done by the leader of the free world, but not if that leader would rather be left alone." Key argument in my latest for @wpr.bsky.social

submitted 16 days ago • 2 comments

A few thoughts on this: (1) shutting down USAID and ending humanitarian assistance aren’t the same thing—watch to see if/how much assistance starts back up in coming months; (2) one impact will be to demonstrate to anyone sensible (leaves out many) how much bang there’s been for v US little buck.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments

The latest accusations (and conspiracy theories) leveled at USAID highlight how US foreign aid has long been an easy political target. My latest for @wpr.bsky.social.

submitted 16 days ago • 0 comments