In 2022, NHS England commissioned us to model the potential longer-term trends in alcohol-related deaths based on evidence about changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic. We tested 5 scenarios as to how these changes might evolve (the lines). The reality is much worse (the dots). - ThreadSky

victimofmaths.bsky.social • 77 days ago

In 2022, NHS England commissioned us to model the potential longer-term trends in alcohol-related deaths based on evidence about changes in alcohol consumption during the pandemic.

We tested 5 scenarios as to how these changes might evolve (the lines). The reality is much worse (the dots).

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fjtweedie.bsky.social•77 days ago

Wait, the dots are the same thing as the lines but the dots go WAY UP THERE! nowhere near the predicted lines?? Good grief. That’s terrifying

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

Yeah. Very not good at all.

james.fieldleveltech.org•77 days ago

Is this using this data set: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/alcoholspecificdeathsintheuk

I'm a bit confused about what years the dots on the chart represent.

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

Actually the data for 2023 has only been published by OHID, not ONS: https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/local-alcohol-profiles/data#page/1
but it's the same time series, yes.

The y-axis scale is the change in deaths since 2019.

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

Our modelling only attempted to capture the impacts of changes in alcohol consumption on health. We didn't attempt to account for other factors, like difficulties accessing specialist alcohol treatment, or general healthcare during the pandemic.

https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdae010

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

But you would expect the impact of these factors to diminish over time as the pandemic recedes into the rear view mirror. Instead, the gap between our most pessimistic, worst-case, scenario and reality continues to widen in very much the wrong direction.

tformanek.bsky.social•77 days ago

Truly astonishing trends. Do you have any hypotheses what factors might be driving these trends?

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

I have a few thoughts, but they are very much still hypotheses at the moment. We've got various strands of research trying to make more sense of this.

Although overall population alcohol consumption appears to have fallen since 2020, there is some evidence that this isn't true for older adults...

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

...The heaviest drinking age group in England is now 55-64 year olds and they are also the age group with the highest rates of alcohol-specific mortality. So further rises in drinking in this group in particular would be very bad news and might explain some of these trends.

victimofmaths.bsky.social•77 days ago

Then there's the 'cost-of-living' crisis and people's response to financial hardship. We published a paper recently finding 1 in 8 adults reported financial hardship in the past year, and substantially higher odds in this group of also reporting psychological distress.

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