Mike and I have had a healthy debate about this over the past few weeks. Here are my brief thoughts: I see 3–5 brigade equivalents as theoretically feasible, with the higher number achievable through adjustments to deployment timelines and select NATO regional defense plans. - ThreadSky

hoanssolo.bsky.social • 7 days ago

Mike and I have had a healthy debate about this over the past few weeks. Here are my brief thoughts: I see 3–5 brigade equivalents as theoretically feasible, with the higher number achievable through adjustments to deployment timelines and select NATO regional defense plans.

Reposted from Michael Kofman

Brief thoughts on a European force for Ukraine. I think there is a degree of requirements paralysis. It doesn’t have to be hundreds of thousands of troops, or cover a 1200km contact line. Where it is deployed, and in what role, is more important than the overall size. 1/

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foxyflyer.bsky.social•7 days ago

The funny things are that UE has a lot of battle groups supposedly prepared for this kind of contingency. Hell there is even an EU staff somewhere. All we need is for politicians to get their heads out of their…..

daangermouseau.bsky.social•6 days ago

As usual tataragami has more detail:

https://bsky.app/profile/tatarigami.bsky.social/post/3liffvgr4yc2y

oldlibrarian.bsky.social•7 days ago

If there's no NATO protection for these troops why would Putin *not* eliminate them with glide bombs & nukes?

foxyflyer.bsky.social•7 days ago

By NATO protection you usually understand US, isn’t it?

oldlibrarian.bsky.social•7 days ago

Hegseth stated European peace troops in Ukraine would not be protected by NATO.
Vance stated there's nothing America will do for liberal democracies.

foxyflyer.bsky.social•7 days ago

My point exactly. Without US there is no NATO protection, also for a NATO mission you need consent, remember SVK and HUN, just to name some?

hoanssolo.bsky.social•7 days ago

That said, I believe we’re having this discussion backward. The first step should be to define our (i.e. European) objectives in Ukraine and assess how vital they are to Europe’s security—only then can we determine what we are willing to risk.

hoanssolo.bsky.social•7 days ago

The second step is to outline a coherent operational plan, and the third is to identify the required forces, the mandate under which they would operate, and the duration of their deployment.

hoanssolo.bsky.social•7 days ago

The longer we delay this debate—particularly in Berlin—the more apparent it becomes that either Germany does not view Ukraine as crucial to Europe’s security architecture as its rhetoric suggests,...

hoanssolo.bsky.social•7 days ago

....or that there is genuine decision paralysis, driven by fear of committing to a military mission without direct U.S. military support.

ptrckflmm.bsky.social•7 days ago

Do you have any thoughts on the Chinese musing about sending peacekeepers to Ukraine as well? Would that be a non-starter from an European perspective or could it add a stabilising element?

hi-as.bsky.social•7 days ago

That would be an interesting challenge for the US-administration. If China would send peace-keepers, they would have influce in Kyiv and the US plan (to stay out, but somehow get the rare earth materials) would have backfired.

luigivercotti.bsky.social•7 days ago

I think you raise a good point, it’s not necessarily the size of the force, but what are the objectives? More importantly, how much political will exists to enforce said objectives?

davidrafferty.bsky.social•7 days ago

Surely that is a fairly simple question (although not easy)? If deployed, they will fight and some will die. Under Ukrainian direction. But supplied/paid for by Europe.

That has to last until Ukraine has the outcome it wants and has forced that on Russia, otherwise there is no point.

davidrafferty.bsky.social•7 days ago

I agree with your point about political will: Europe has no large scale experience of this. And not much experience of the type of political leadership required for it to work.

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