[/end of thread] As usual, much detail and nuance has been ignored for brevity, and caveats apply. For example: - ThreadSky

davidrvetter.bsky.social • 61 days ago

[/end of thread]
As usual, much detail and nuance has been ignored for brevity, and caveats apply. For example:

Comments

Thanks for this. Do you think the U. S. can catch up if we have a different government in four years? If so, what are the costs inherent in the delay?

davidrvetter.bsky.social•61 days ago

Some elements of the renewables supply chain *are* constrained in particular ways - eg. lithium. But again, these should not be viewed in the same way as fossil fuels. They are commodities, but they are not fuels.

davidrvetter.bsky.social•61 days ago

Important differences include the fact that you don't destroy lithium when you use it, and it can be fully recovered. Another point is that lithium, like many of the elements in the renewables supply chain, can be (indeed is being and will be) replaced by more abundant elements.

swgeoff.bsky.social•60 days ago

Mining key minerals, especially cobalt in the DRC is doing terrible environmental damage. These minerals are necessary but effects can mitigated by recycling batteries and electronic devices and recovering the key metals

davidrvetter.bsky.social•61 days ago

Happy to add other caveats as they occur.

esavakkilainen.bsky.social•61 days ago

One problem is that China has chosen to remain a developing country.
So according to WTO it can
- establish 5 wind companies with 0 borrowing
- guarantee those companies revenue from domestic orders (0 competition)
- look them surging to top international businesses
While US nor EU can not.

esavakkilainen.bsky.social•61 days ago

One can order all equipment and services needed in wind energy projects from non Chinese suppliers.

mmullany.bsky.social•61 days ago

But the central premise here is false for wind. Chinese wind turbines are cheapest, but GE delivers turbines at perfectly acceptable prices, or you can go with Vestas.

The big barriers to US Wind are all domestic problems: appropriate port facilities and shipping (Jones Act).

rcdavies.bsky.social•60 days ago

This is a really important point. Yes the behemonth of chinese industry has intimidated many suppliers, but there are still others in the game with scale. So the US position is really party-political. Trump's camp are convinced that renewables are verboten, and reversed the argument to fit.

changleen.bsky.social•61 days ago

There are (were) at least three wind turbine factories in the US. The extreme tl;dr of this is that everything the US administration says is harmful bollocks.

fluidsguru.bsky.social•61 days ago

These are all good points, but I'd add the fact that renewables have no fuel costs and encourage community-based, decentralised projects works against them from a political view.

Solar and wind companies run on razor-thin margins. There is no renewable equivalent of 'big oil'.

fluidsguru.bsky.social•61 days ago

Because as you rightly point out, you can't monopolise the extraction and transportation of renewable 'fuel'. It's everywhere, and it's free to use.

So no 'big solar' or 'big wind' has been able to use their huge market caps to provide alternative political pressure to 'big oil' and 'big gas'.

fluidsguru.bsky.social•61 days ago

China chose renewables to create energy security.

But countries which are energy exporters (e.g. USA, Australia, Canada, Norway) remain 'state captured' by big oil/gas.

Note the above countries all have massive renewable potential!

But $$$ talks in our political systems.

tweet-by-sea.bsky.social•61 days ago

China's dominance of turbine manufacturing is undeniable and impressive, because they were latecommers. Europeans retain their early innovation champions eg Vestas, and Chinese turbines account for <5% of Europe's installed capacity. Europe remains competitive for installation expertise.

timmonsroberts.bsky.social•61 days ago

We do have some onshore Chinese Goldwind turbines here in RI, generating a lot of electricity, pretty reliably. But the big turbines in plans for major installations offshore the Northeast are European, not Chinese. Right? Could use better understanding of parts and components--are those Chinese?

mcenkidu.bsky.social•61 days ago

True but if you invade Greenland you might become an enemy of Denmark!

gamleode.bsky.social•61 days ago

All this relates to utility level energy systems, while we are on a social media.
At our level we can bypass this geopolitical haggling by buying solar and a battery/EV to gain independence from their stranglehold.

Let data centers fund their own utilities & pay for their own fossil fuel pollution.

kate-eviva.bsky.social•61 days ago

🙏 for sharing your expertise. This is very important for us all to know about.

magnuspaaske.bsky.social•61 days ago

Love the thread. For spare parts it also makes sense to consider that there are several strategies that can be used to limit dependence: building a stockpile, cannibalizing for parts, accepting some degradation over time and others. Each strategy is easier with renewables

magnuspaaske.bsky.social•61 days ago

Especially since much of the installation/maintenance workforce is local you actually have the expertise on hand that’s needed for solving many common issues. And since not all pieces degrade/fail at the same rate you can also make sure you have a local supply chain for the ones more likely to fail

johnnyvector.bsky.social•61 days ago

Also if replacement parts are an issue, I personally would suspect that things running at room temperature and 30 rpm should be expected to cost far less and last longer than the ones running at 1300 °C and 3600 rpm.

davidrvetter.bsky.social•61 days ago

Thanks for adding these!

mikepjones1.bsky.social•61 days ago

There is a *separate* legitimate point about how the PRC has been working to control the market in eg rare earths - and the failure of the West to recognise that as a threat and respond.

None of which detracts from your central argument here. Renewables are preferable economically & strategically.

robstowasser.bsky.social•61 days ago

Great thread. The huge hike in gas price following the Russia Ukraine conflict exemplified the sovereign risk attached to reliance on fossil fuel for electricity generation. Renewables are bound to prevail despite the best efforts of the FF industry.

davidrvetter.bsky.social•61 days ago

Thank you Robert.

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply