So much for US deals. And with the current exemptions this also means that the big targets end up being consumer goods, hence why Asia will be so badly hit - electrical products and branded clothes etc. Which will hit many marquee US companies hardest. - ThreadSky

davidheniguk.bsky.social • 12 days ago

So much for US deals. And with the current exemptions this also means that the big targets end up being consumer goods, hence why Asia will be so badly hit - electrical products and branded clothes etc. Which will hit many marquee US companies hardest.

Reposted from Philipp Heimberger

Incredible. The Trump administration calculated "tariff rates" by taking the US trade deficit with the respective country and dividing it by the country's exports to the US. And then the tariff rate of the US is often just set by cutting that made-up "tariff rate" in half.

Comments

jaksays.bsky.social•12 days ago

Nike took a hell of a hit, 50% of its manufacturing is in Vietnam

Similar will happen elsewhere

lfillingham.bsky.social•11 days ago

And this formula necessarily means that the least developed countries will face the highest tariffs, which is appalling.

andberry.bsky.social•11 days ago

Did they employ Minford?

wdavidse.bsky.social•12 days ago

How on earth will this bring back manufacturing to US? Asia exports many low value components. Surely it’s better to divert these to say UK or EU and use components in more high value and existing manufacturing before exporting to US at 10% in UK case.

newtonapple.bsky.social•11 days ago

If 50% of UK product originates in China then 50% of Chinese tariff rate will apply when exporting to US.

* It's much more complicated than this, but that's the general idea. Google "rules of origin" if you are brave.

wdavidse.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yes just read this post. Good luck to US customs officials trying to find capacity to enforce this.

https://bsky.app/profile/samuelmarclowe.bsky.social/post/3llvo6ic3os2y

davidheniguk.bsky.social•12 days ago

Pretty clear what the rest of the world should be doing today first and foremost is letting the US decline while focusing on maintaining trade with each other. Any changes to US tariffs will come from internal pressure not playing nice.

nazishmunch.bsky.social•11 days ago

Hard agree.

richarddubourg.bsky.social•11 days ago

Once upon a time, if countries put up tariffs, they'd have to do it for every country, as per WTO. But that seems out of the window now. So what happens if every country puts up its tariffs only on US goods? Surely the impact on the US will be massive?

officialstehee.bsky.social•11 days ago

It means that WTO is now redundant, which is bouncing around the brains of Brexiters considering they were screaming “lets go WTO”.

richarddubourg.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yep. The Telegraph is also saying Brexit saved us from higher tariffs. But higher tariffs mean your trade position with the US is "better". So what did Brexit do..?

jako87.bsky.social•11 days ago

The EU should also push trade away from $ and pay in € instead. That automatically reduces demand for US treasuries and creates demand for (common-) EU debt. Nail-coffin $.

officialstehee.bsky.social•11 days ago

You do realise that one of the main goals of Russia & Chinese hegemony is the destruction of the US$ as the World’s Reserve Currency.

pukolis.bsky.social•11 days ago

Well America shouldn't have elected trump in that case. Too late now.

davidheniguk.bsky.social•12 days ago

Yes, there will be an economic hit to the rest of us, but it is manageable. It is the US that is in the grip of economic lunacy from wannabe authoritarians and will suffer far most. Ironically they might achieve the aim of a reduced deficit - through recession.

trevor-greetham.bsky.social•11 days ago

Spot on. Universal tariffs don’t allow trade to reroute. The only way to cut the trade deficit is to push the capital account into deficit by a massive rise in domestic savings and a collapse in investment. Trump will be cheering it on. 🍿

olli1001.bsky.social•12 days ago

where have I heard the "we are better off without all of you" and "we were great in the last century" last ?

Maybe it is the same think tank promoting these ideas

maisongladys.bsky.social•12 days ago

The IIA?
(Institute of Idiotic Ideas)

#r4today

emigno.bsky.social•12 days ago

And then the wealthiest 1% buy up the everything cheap, and the US becomes a full oligarchical autocracy and you have a 2nd Russia shithole nation.

nazishmunch.bsky.social•11 days ago

Yes. But will help lead to other regions transitioning, albeit painfully, to self sufficiency and local manufacturing. Might even lead to reducing bulimic growth and consumption models (one can dream).
Trump may end up creating a cleaner, greener world. 🤣

catiomiles.bsky.social•11 days ago

The US put in charge a guy who managed to bankrupt a casino…

davidheniguk.bsky.social•11 days ago

Have quickly blogged some key points from the tariff announcement yesterday. In short, the US consumer is being asked to pay more to reduce the deficit. Question as to how that affects a services economy. As the US retreats the rest of us should move on https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/first-thoughts-us-tariff-announcement-david-henig-whr9e/

davidheniguk.bsky.social•11 days ago

(this might need some rework in slower time...)

tintenfische.bsky.social•11 days ago

I know this is probably a really stupid question but...

As American demand for goods is about to drop through the floor will that mean lots of stuff going cheap on international markets?

tintenfische.bsky.social•11 days ago

Also, why won't EU companies just funnel everything through UK subsidiaries now to get around tarrifs? Is there like a percentage of parts in a digger that must be made in Britain for it to be British? The Chinese obviously did similar with Vietnam and Mexico so could the EU do so here?

bornach.bsky.social•11 days ago

And should I wait before ordering a new PC for global computer parts prices to fall?

sykobee.bsky.social•11 days ago

Or will other markets subsidise a lower import price for the USA?

espritescalier.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think @mrjamesob.bsky.social hit the nail on the head. He'll impose tariffs and firms will come to him 1 by 1 to ask for exemptions, which he'll agree to, provided they do exactly as he says re DEI, employees' freedom of speech, maybe a few 'donations' etc., just as Putin did with the oligarchs.