This is fascinating (and pretty intuitive), BUT... I'd like to see this same chart for members of the other MiC segments. Do Backbone Conservatives and Loyal Natonalists also overestimate how progressive the country is? Or do they exhibit the same tendency in the opposite direction? - ThreadSky

drjennings.bsky.social • 1 day ago

This is fascinating (and pretty intuitive), BUT... I'd like to see this same chart for members of the other MiC segments. Do Backbone Conservatives and Loyal Natonalists also overestimate how progressive the country is? Or do they exhibit the same tendency in the opposite direction?

Reposted from Luke Tryl

Firstly progressive activists tend to overestimate how many people share their views, often overestimating by a factor of 2-3 the prevalence of more 'progressive' views. This can lead to campaigners thinking they can take an 'activation' rather than 'persuasion' approach.

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kevcunningham.bsky.social•1 day ago

Breaking News: cluster analysis creates groups of people with different opinions.

techpriest.bsky.social•1 day ago

I think we saw a lot of that with the Rwanda scheme debacle, Jenrick ordering childrens murals to be destroyed, and Bibby Stockholm barge. The Tory party memed itself into believing that performative cruelty towards refugees was "the will of the people" when in fact it was only the will of Faragists

techpriest.bsky.social•1 day ago

A good chunk of traditional Tory voters found the whole thing distasteful, which didn't hurt the Lib Dems when they were simultaneously targeting the "blue wall" for the general election

oliviaquinn.bsky.social•1 day ago

His bit regarding ‘alienating language used’ is honestly laughable.
Did I miss it where he shares the demographics of the survey participants? Because what do you expect when the premise for the analysis is biased by default.

stevepeers.bsky.social•1 day ago

We certainly see a lot of "everyone opposes immigration/net zero" sort of arguments

pascallth.bsky.social•1 day ago

Test that with the same statements and also with statements that are conservative rather than progressive-coded

teresabarry.bsky.social•1 day ago

My memory may be flawed, but I'm sure I've seen studies that other segments are equally out of step on some issues - for example believing a greater %age of the population are immigrants than is the case, or believing that prison sentences are more lenient than they are.

teresabarry.bsky.social•1 day ago

And it would be interesting to see some parallel to the objective facts - so how are the beliefs of a particular segment informed by what information they consume? Also, I imagine there's a certain amount of self-definition which would feed into having a different view to the population as a whole.

stevieinselby.bsky.social•1 day ago

The hard-right certainly talk as if everyone in the country was extremely conservative. I don't know if that's because (1) they genuinely believe it's true, (b) they are trying to set the narrative and convince people it's true, or (iii) they only care about conservatives and screw the rest of us 🤔

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