@zonal-marking.bsky.social published an interesting piece for the Athletic yesterday on a lot of what you discuss, check it out if you haven't seen it already
I think we need to be serious and get something done with Villa for Watkins, he would be a sensible signing offering us goals now. His age is obviously a little on the wrong side. But I think Arteta views Nwaneri through the middle up top from his comments earlier in the season
Hopefully no significant money will be spent by Arsenal in this window so as we can plan properly and sign the players we genuinely need when you're meant to do it, the summer.
This summer, when our board will take so many times for anything again, even a release clause, a 18 years old for less than 15 millions is impossible but ok we are so great
Great point about people wanting us to get the ‘dream’ striker (Isak) but let’s be real it’s not happening. At some point the club needs to gamble somewhat and I think Watkins is as close to a sure thing as we can realistically get.
watkins is not remotely gettable unless we want to shell out caicedo money.
they weren't a club desperate for money even before the duran sale and they're through to the knockout of CL. their ambition is to be in the same tier as us in that top 4, there's no motivation to empower a direct rival.
I don’t think it’s gonna be anywhere near caicedo money and Villa are sailing very close to the wind PSR wise. I’m not saying we’ll get him but Emery is not exactly shutting it down and they’re being linked with a new forward every day
they were one of the teams that played the "academy kids for inflated price" game in the offseason and that pandora's box is now open with no real way to close it. and that's before they got saudi money for duran.
I think the potential purchase of Zubimendi could have an impact on how much we can spend this Jan. His fee would most likely be his €60mil release clause that needs to be paid in full. That may make us less flexible PSR wise. Only a hunch.
Not sure about Tel, a player who has scored 0 goals this season and only 10 the season before surely isn’t someone we should be paying £50m for. If we were to get Watkins for the same price and get three seasons (where we win something) out of him, then what is the issue?
Really good piece. I think the other aspect that gets ignored sometimes is the timing aspect of squad building. Is buying someone like Watkins now (and I’m not saying we will) better than waiting a while to buy someone like Sesko, who may take a season to adapt to the league? During which time…
…you’ve reduced your odds of winning anything in two campaigns, the rest of your squad is getting older, some people will move on, some stars might fancy a different challenge, etc etc. And then maybe the guy you’ve waited on doesn’t ever end up that much more valuable than a known quantity like..
Watkins. The dynamics look different if you can actually get someone like Isak who is both a known quantity and a level above Watkins. But what odds would anyone put on that happening given that (a) he might not be available and (b) we compete with clubs willing to outspend us?
I often thought we should have gone all out for a summer target like Nico Williams, Martinelli and Trossard can play no9, bring an elite signing forward and gives a whole boost to the front line in the mean
Nico Williams hasn't been setting the world alight in terms of stats (in fact he never really has) but he always looks an exciting player - so, in summary, no idea if we should try and get him
I read in a lot of places that singing a 29 year old goes against Arteta's transfer policy.
I have to disagree with this. Jorginho, Willian, Trossard are just three examples of this. It seems to be more about finding the right player than age (Willian was not the right player!!!).
Because they were low risk, Willian was free and Trossard and Jorginho were a cut price, Watkins would cost a fair chunk, not sure the club would spend that money when players five years younger are at a similar value.
We need the signing as a striker that Van Dijk was for Liverpool as a centre half - remember they paid £75M for him so allowing for inflation and the fact we want a striker that's £150M probably - yikes!!
I think Watkins happens. He’s the type of signing that at this stage of the season makes a lot of sense and it’s hard to see Villa turning down an increased bid at his age
Villa seem to be scrambling to find strikers so Arseblog / Andrew may be on to something. Is Watkins cup tied from the Champs League if he switched clubs?
Great piece. I'm all aboard the Watkins train this morning and clinging to the Rashford to Villa rumours as a sign it's still possible. He improves our team instantly and his end product over the last two seasons is inarguable. Plus he stops scoring against us.
Yes I think Elliot made a good point on this, the error bar for Watkins is low. It’s a very good bet he can add 10-15 league goals a season to the team and that’s significant.
I wouldn’t buy Watkins at the price Villa are suggesting but ultimately nothing wrong with us going for an older player, I don’t at all buy betting against the age curve is any stupider than paying top whack for a player who is just traits at this stage.
Yes exactly, we are well placed to take a swing on an older player. I just wouldn’t for Watkins unless the price was good. I also think given where the transfer market is at, there is likely an edge to be found in buying older players if price is correctly calibrated for the risk
I understand the reservations about it and don’t think they’re wrong at all. I just don’t see better options. The market has been suboptimal for ages, it’s safe to assume that won’t change, so as just have to do something slightly suboptimal and if that’s the case, I want a safe bet.
The only downside to Watkins is it getting in the way of a player who could pop in a way that Watkins won’t. As sort of happened in the Giroud era (who was a comparably good player too).
The discourse reminds me of the re-evaluation of Giroud. Got pelters for so long. As soon as he left, all of a sudden, he's the answer. The best Arsenal player is the one not in the starting eleven. 🙄
They wouldn’t, we are reliant on Liverpool dropping lots of points, he only gives us a better chance of winning games. We would also need to be near perfect.
I see no logic in spending £60 mil now, I’d rather loan Evan Ferguson to see out the season, or similar.
Ok but let’s say you wait until the summer. Who do you buy that’s gives us a better chance of winning next year? Whether he is perfect or not, Watkins has shown he is a top striker in the PL and anyone else we get has risk attached to it really
Well, I don’t know as the market will look differently to what it does currently. I’d like to think we will strengthen in many positions come Summer, so the collective signings enable us to get closer to winning. Watkins wouldn’t be my starting point though, “if” he was a success 1/2
Not to mention the goals he’ll no longer score against us, which seem to be in every game we play them! A childish point, but one Jose Mourinho wasn’t above when signing Wright-Phillips (so we couldn’t.)😆
If he's from outside the PL, we'd look at the stats, be quite excited, then wonder if he could do it in the PL. Both floor and ceiling would be unknown. This guy can do it in the PL, we know it. He scores different types of goals, and the number of assists is very positive. He's pretty rounded.
Paradoxically, his missing chances is a good thing, because he gets chances to miss, and I'm not sure this is because Villa is built around creating chances for him, either.
Don't think pace is his game so his age matters less. His game is about bursts of sharp movement. He's clever. Don't think that's disappearing in the next 2.5 years.
Just need him to say he hates Emery's video analysis and he'll be on his way.
Watkins is probably a direct replacement for what the club hoped/expected Jesus’ role would be this season - a rotational option that can contribute 10-15 goals
I think our lack of that sort of striker isn't as concerning as the lack of goals from other areas this season. We've lost Saka, Ødegaard hasn't returned to his best on that front. Martinelli has had his struggles with goals and Merino is yet to really make a significant impact.
We don't need perfect do we, we need what Jesus could provide at his best and maybe a little extra on top just to start with. It's also forgotten too that Rice came in as the third signing in that 'no. 6' position. It's not a sure shot.
I was really hoping that we'd get a Saudi offer for Trossard just so it forces our hand a little more, top up the copper jar etc. All month we HAD to do something by the Citeh game and we haven't. I guarantee that at one point in tomorrow's game, we're going to look at our bench and feel worried.
I have a sense (or is that hope) that Villa would like to cash in on Watkins if its ‘big’ cash and they can replace him with somebody. Maybe - as ever - we should have been more decisive a few weeks earlier so that he was the striker leaving Villa this window
Sorry to be clear I definitely think we should get OW if we can. My brother is catastrophising about Villa playing us on this but I’m not so sure. I hope/pray that Emery comments were more indicative of an opportunity. Hope is a 4 letter word and all that…….COYG
What do we all make of Villa moving for Rashford? Can’t help but think that it will be pitchforks if Villa manages to strengthen in forward positions by retaining Olly, loaning Rashford (and poss Felix) & obviously having Malen ready to go whilst also offloading Duran, while we end up doing nothing
For a coaching team that likes to make marginal gains in every aspect of the game, it would be a huge failure by the club not to secure a signing that would (in theory) significantly increase our chances of scoring goals, winning games and winning trophies this season.
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they weren't a club desperate for money even before the duran sale and they're through to the knockout of CL. their ambition is to be in the same tier as us in that top 4, there's no motivation to empower a direct rival.
the only way he'd move is if he agitates for one.
I have to disagree with this. Jorginho, Willian, Trossard are just three examples of this. It seems to be more about finding the right player than age (Willian was not the right player!!!).
Signing*
or *possibly* omodorion after chelsea did their dumb.
We still have a number of great young players, now we want “win now” ones
Fuck the age shite look at Vardy he's still scoring at 38, not saying the same would happen but why couldn't it
But we would be writing off 60m for that as no resale
Like you say, if we were closer, from 50% to 80%.
I agree that 60m on a 29yo is a big punt to go from 5 to 40%. Up to club though if they think it’s worth it…
If no Watkins is settle for a Sterling equivalent purely to take minutes!
I see no logic in spending £60 mil now, I’d rather loan Evan Ferguson to see out the season, or similar.
Just need him to say he hates Emery's video analysis and he'll be on his way.
Still don't think it will happen.
but he is really good in midfield