I doubt it will work though. 30 manufacturers? There are hundreds out there, and most have an incentive to defect from the cartel behaviour. Barriers to entry in solar manufacturing are low. - ThreadSky

solarchase.bsky.social • 89 days ago

I doubt it will work though. 30 manufacturers? There are hundreds out there, and most have an incentive to defect from the cartel behaviour. Barriers to entry in solar manufacturing are low.

Reposted from Will Mathis

China’s solar panel makers just formed the OPEC of renewable energy.

The biggest manufacturers of solar equipment have essentially formed a cartel and have agreed to production quotas next year in response to soaring supplies that have destroyed profits

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Comments

willmathis.bsky.social•89 days ago

True, and look at OPEC today. Members who have cut oil output are just ceding market share to non-members. And as you say, much easier to make solar panels than to discover vast, economic petroleum resources

velyvan.bsky.social•89 days ago

Plus, it has never been an emergency to buy solar panels. If your country runs out of oil and gas, in three months the whole economy collapses, no more transport, and people freeze in their homes. You don't have solar panels: fine, you'll just install them next year.

randyhermanlaw.com•89 days ago

Not to mention that the US is probably not going to buy many Chinese-manufactured units for a while regardless due to tariffs.

solarchase.bsky.social•89 days ago

The US isn't relevant here.

randyhermanlaw.com•89 days ago

Yes, I'm sure the US import market has *no* effect on prices of Chinese manufactured goods

solarchase.bsky.social•89 days ago

US hasn't imported much solar module directly from China since 2012 (with a few blips for, eg, the bifacial exemption) due to other tariffs. It's one reason the module prices in the US are 3x what they are in Europe.

randyhermanlaw.com•89 days ago

That is interesting, I am not in procurement but my understanding was that all of my company's modules are Chinese imports

solarchase.bsky.social•89 days ago

If your company is in the US, it is likely that it is importing from factories in southeast Asia. These may be owned by Chinese firms.

matthewkeillor.bsky.social•89 days ago

China has 80-85% market share for solar cell/module manufacturing though, turbocharged by subsidies. They are the reason the market is so oversupplied—IEA estimated in Jan. that supply would reach 1.1 TWh be YE24, ~2x global demand. US cost still ~$0.30/W per EIA, but global avg tanked... 1/2

solarchase.bsky.social•89 days ago

Oh, more than that.

But the thing about oversupply is that everyone's doing it. If everyone wasn't doing it there wouldn't be oversupply.

matthewkeillor.bsky.social•89 days ago

Sure, it's just that the vast majority is made in China and is backed by gov't, so a cartel could work if it gets support. I can imagine a scenario where China's gov't puts pressure on its solar producers to play nice. But if gov't prefers keeping market share, cartel will probably be toothless.

solarchase.bsky.social•89 days ago

Nah. China's government is really keen to get the bloody solar mfers to stop selling below cost, but they don't want to because the first to fold will never come back.

matthewkeillor.bsky.social•89 days ago

so badly it threatens investments, particularly in Europe. I know Meyer Burger at least closed a plant. Int'l manufacturers are also trying to set up shop in the US as a result, where they see a better market. But even with IRA & existing tariffs, we don't have the capacity yet, so still importing.

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