Planetary astronomers are on the case of potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4. The chance of impact is at 1.3%, so I'm going to be making plans for New Years 2033 - Some updates from astronomers reporting on their latest telescope observations iawn.net/obscamp/2024... #2024YR4 🔭 - ThreadSky

megschwamb.bsky.social • 29 days ago

Planetary astronomers are on the case of potentially hazardous asteroid 2024 YR4. The chance of impact is at 1.3%, so I'm going to be making plans for New Years 2033 - Some updates from astronomers reporting on their latest telescope observations https://iawn.net/obscamp/2024YR4/index.shtml #2024YR4 🔭

Comments

megschwamb.bsky.social•29 days ago

I sometimes get asked is there an asteroid that is going to hit Earth that astronomers know about but haven't told the public. My answer is always no. Astronomers get the word out. We talk to each other and the public. So there's no secret keeping.

newtyke.bsky.social•29 days ago

Who asks you and what makes them think they are special so that you will tell them?

Can we award a Dunning-Kruger cross with with oak leaves, swords, and diamonds?

cavin.bsky.social•29 days ago

deathbymeteor.bsky.social•29 days ago

I mean, you don't keep secrets, but us space rocks definitely do. Like no one has mentioned the surprise party we're planning for YR4 yet...

Oh... wait...

stan-fresh.bsky.social•29 days ago

I mean the bragging rights alone if you spot The One, right?

dansmithcreates.bsky.social•29 days ago

not sure about that... it'd be the biggest Debbie Downer of all time!

DD: I discovered an asteroid heading for us!
Reporter: Whoa! How big?
DD: It's like 10 Million Buicks melted together, and there is nothing we can do to stop it!
DD: I have named it Calamitus Max! 2 weeks! Wont need a telescope!

stan-fresh.bsky.social•29 days ago

First step is to name it after yourself.

kevinvermeer.bsky.social•29 days ago

What if I don't want to wait until 2033? Here's hoping someone spots an asteroid on a collision course for Feb 9, 2025. Cheer with me:
Meteor!
Meteor!
Meteor!

aj.reznor.com•28 days ago

Can we... request an asteroid? What are proper channels for such a request?

sparkes.bsky.social•29 days ago

Astronomy gossip cannot be contained.

megschwamb.bsky.social•29 days ago

Exactly!

craigdodge.bsky.social•29 days ago

Scientists in general really don’t get career boosts from papers they don’t write.

grozagarza.bsky.social•29 days ago

Honestly, too bad...

constantdaydream.bsky.social•29 days ago

This is an exciting time. To be true.

The fact that we could ever surmise ways to achieve such things as this, as the Parker probe, as Dart.

Bank the eight. 🤣

megschwamb.bsky.social•29 days ago

So that's why even though this asteroid has a low chance of impact. It's making headlines now because science and analysis is happening in real time. More data is coming in and astronomers talking it. The systems that were supposed to highlight this object as important to follow-up did their job.

publiomulero.bsky.social•29 days ago

How I wish this was true, but probably no. It is making headlines because most people don't understand statistics and this asteroid MIGHT KILL YOU.

megschwamb.bsky.social•29 days ago

I think it's also making headlines because it's live science/analysis in real time. So an opportunity to see things happening as they go. Whereas most astronomical results are presented after all the observations and analysis are done. We know the answer by the time the public are informed.

sondy.com•29 days ago

Us astronomers have got to be in the top 5 most gossipy science fields.

allthebears.bsky.social•29 days ago

OK, but is there one? We deserve a mass extinction event given *gestures at everything*

megschwamb.bsky.social•27 days ago

I think most of that big size are cataloged. Surveys are not complete on the smaller end. Of the known Near-Earth asteroid,  currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%.

icesurfer.bsky.social•29 days ago

- This massive asteroid has 99.5% chance of hitting Earth in 10 years
- Should we keep it secret? People might panic
- Like they are panicking for climate change, you mean?
- Ah, good point.

whawilshere.bsky.social•29 days ago

Phase 1: There is no asteroid.
Phase 2: The asteroid won't be as bad as people are saying.
Phase 3: The asteroid is a tool to control us.
Phase 4: Impact.
Phase 5: The asteroid was a government cover up for some secret weapon program used to cull people.

alvinsdream.bsky.social•29 days ago

They did make that movie. It was pretty good

exurgency.bsky.social•29 days ago

The mental image of vast flocks of astronomers in hot air balloons trying to block a particularly interesting spot of the night sky is amazing, though.

khippie.bsky.social•29 days ago

But is there a secret blackhope at the centre of our solar system that's gonna destroy us all? Please, please let the answer be yes

khippie.bsky.social•29 days ago

I realise the typo and to be honest, it makes it funnier (to me at least)

novusflorae.bsky.social•29 days ago

Or is that what you’re supposed to say to keep the truth away from the people?? /s

screwinbulb.bsky.social•29 days ago

Astronomer that discovers it, every day, forever: “I discovered it! It’s named after me!”
Everyone else: “Yeah, great 😒” *gets wiped out*

thrash-panda.bsky.social•29 days ago

Damn. Can you all check one more time please?

notapreppie.bsky.social•29 days ago

But, but, but... what about the Illumenati Lizard People that control everything?

Check-mate!
(/s, obvs)

2024yr4.bsky.social•29 days ago

I'm actually built by the Shriners. Helping kids was a cover for their plans to flatten some random city.

drgoon.bsky.social•29 days ago

So three orders of magnitude less dangerous than a week with the current US administration?

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