Nate Silver shows his whole hand (some might say ass) in this guest column for the @nytimes.com. He’s been hanging with “like minded” folks in Silicon Valley, Wall St, the high stakes poker circuit and crypto—a group he calls the “River.” 1/x
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In his forthcoming book, he details the River’s intellectual advantages over the “Village,” which he defines as East coast elites, most of whom vote blue and act in conformist lockstep.
If you’re wondering where Silver went so very wrong, this essay basically sums it up.
He has adopted the arbitrary division of the world into “smart, disruptive risktakers” and “hidebound, play-it-safe consensus thinkers” that so many in the former group embrace, believing themselves to be members of the former group.
The formers call the latters “elitists” (even though the formers include the wealthiest and most narcissistic individuals in the world). They think of themselves as “mavericks,” but anyone with any experience in SV or crypto or Wall St know that these are the most herd-mentality spaces on earth.
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They create bubbles that pop with regularity (destroying huge amounts of value) literally because they follow trends and conform rigorously to their own conventional wisdom. Meanwhile they decry the elite “Village” as wokeists who support mob cancel culture and suppress innovation.
And of course, there’s no group more inclined to suppress dissent (and harshly) if not aligned with their particular dogma than Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and especially crypto—anyone who’s seen a cryptobro pile-on knows that to be true.
But even if you buy Silver’s definitions, the idea that the “River” has been “on a run” while the “Village” is stagnant is wild. The Village preserved democracy and oversaw unprecedented growth the past four years—to the vast benefit of the ungrateful River.
Started out on the Village side of things, moved over to the River world, seen a ton of both first hand. Also am in the poker world.
Jeff, your take is spot TF on AFAIC.
A lot of the professional high-stakes poker players Silver knows who weren't Silicon Valley people are also heavily into the Effective Altruism scam. And crypto.
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If you’re wondering where Silver went so very wrong, this essay basically sums it up.
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Jeff, your take is spot TF on AFAIC.
“The Cathedral” / The Dark Enlightenment
I’ve spent my entire life online watching these weirdo loser reactionaries coming up with new categories which affirm their supposed superiority.