Polls like this is aren't super reliable, but this would largely fit the post-Dobbs pattern of soft Republics or centrists abandoning the party en masse. For example, Biden is thought to have won white college voters by ~5% max but here he's pulling down 60%.
Trump winning "Hispanic" respondents is similarly curious. As always the best response is to not think too hard about it & just toss it in the hopper with the rest of them
I'm taking the gender crosstab more seriously because "which half of the main sample are you in?" is still pretty meaningful, but the Hispanics sample is small enough and quirky enough on top of that that there's a lot of noise. The trend of Hispanics moving right is bearing out in elections, though
Yeah I mean this far out none of it means THAT much. But it's just a data point that at least suggests the narrative of "certain defeat" you see in some quarters is off base.
Actually a good question. It is impossible for me, an Online person to actually say. If I happen to speak to a normal person in the next few weeks I will ask. (This happens more rarely than you think.)
I'm not even sure if she needs to do anything. If he turns even a portion of the remaining WW voters who would have voted for him by being a freak about this into non voters, he's stuck. She's not gonna pull new voters to biden, but attacking her can turn off potential supporters.
It may be hard for Biden to recruit a lot of new voters... but Donald Trump absolutely has room to alienate people! Lotta space between that and the 27% Crazy floor.
Honestly, the Republicans are playing with fire by focusing on Joe's (obvious) decline in a way Democrats aren't by focusing on Trump's. Rs are blaming it on Joe being old (everyone gets old) Ds on Trump being crazy (not everyone is crazy)
I mean, that's the story of the next 20 years plus of American politics - what happens when you rig the system assuming you get 45-50% of white women and you neatly fuck yourself out of that by banning abortion like an asshole?
along with the privatization of schooling, making public education no longer mandatory, so that suddenly families find it unaffordable to send daughters and sons to school, and choose to only send sons
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after this. They're too stupid and mean to help themselves.
It will be like the election autopsy on the GOP's poor Latino relations turning into "rapists and murderers" three years later.