The main problem with planning for a Trump presidency, on the trade side as well as security, is that the man is unpredictable. Any strategy depends on his behaviour. We are all guessing in the dark.
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Yes and like being faced with a crazed animal, that leads toward a strategy of "keep clear and choose another way". Europe needs to grow up a bit. A positive take is that a pressing need for closer security alignment will lead to greater cultural economic unity. It will be messy though.
We know what he wants to do. What we don't know is whether he will do it - or if he does, what happens next once other governments, organisations and individuals respond.
But we should expect tariffs broadly, and withdrawal from US strategic commitments. He's been clear on that.
imprévisible et très paresseux, tout ce que j'espère c'est qu'il n'aura pas le capacité de travail nécessaire pour mettre ses idées en actes et trop orgueilleux pour déléguer, bref une sorte d'apathie du pouvoir
His mercurial behavior will be influenced by his bottomless need for praise and the competing sycophantic ideologues and grifters trying to get or stay in his ear. I suppose PR work by Europeans in constituencies that matter could be a worthwhile longer term option. 1/
Presumably European companies with manufacturing operations here will already have some experience with that. Letting Trump take credit for new operations could be another in. Hard to say. 2//
One of the problems (not the only one!) is how hard it will be to decouple on security matters without it becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, or worse, without it being perceived as a hostile move by a Trump administration
There will be an inevitable ramp-up phase (if we get there!) and the danger will be if he then decides to withdraw before we are ready to stand on our two feet
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Force is the only language that will be heard.
But let’s take into account that the USA are perhaps no longer a liberal democracy.
But we should expect tariffs broadly, and withdrawal from US strategic commitments. He's been clear on that.
According to a former Trump trade person I heard interviewed at least