If you had asked me 6 weeks ago, I would have told you that the outcome of the German elections was almost certain. But now I am no longer sure. Merz made a very fundamental mistake yesterday. Some will try and tell you it is no big deal. It is. - ThreadSky

helenebismarck.bsky.social • 33 days ago

If you had asked me 6 weeks ago, I would have told you that the outcome of the German elections was almost certain. But now I am no longer sure. Merz made a very fundamental mistake yesterday. Some will try and tell you it is no big deal.
It is.

Comments

snial.bsky.social•33 days ago

@zeemzee.bsky.social - would you agree?

hilakata.bsky.social•33 days ago

Ten years ago maybe. Listening to my Schwabian relations and to their changed xenophobic / racist statements, indicates that it might boost the chances of the CDU.
Context: This region is not East Germany, very wealthy (second only to some Bavarian regions), and Catholic CDU heartland.

helenebismarck.bsky.social•33 days ago

Even if he doesn’t lose voters in the centre (and I think he will), he just made coalition building with SPD and Greens a lot harder. The next government could be very unstable.

hilakata.bsky.social•33 days ago

Coalition building with the Greens is now nearly impossible, but the SPD on the other hand? Not so sure.
Loosing voters in the centre? I really really hope that you are right, but for myself I fear that I could have a far too rose tinted view of the voters in the centre.

holgerfriedrich.bsky.social•33 days ago

It is definitely in our Bluesky bubble. It should be for everyone. But will it be a fundamental mistake in the eyes of large parts of the populace? I am afraid to find out that maybe large quantities of voters like what he did and thus will vote for him or the AfD. Let's hope not.

whawilshere.bsky.social•33 days ago

I fear that the only way this hurts the CDU is that it boosts the AfD. I feel that most of those who are outraged now would not have been voting for Merz anyway. . .

helenebismarck.bsky.social•33 days ago

I wouldn’t be so sure about this. Could hurt the CDU on both sides.

steve-v-de.bsky.social•33 days ago

Was it a mistake? Scholz after Aschaffenburg said there would be immediate actions and then voted against action.
Many do not want to vote AfD but are being ignored by the other parties.
Sure those public vocal are not supporters of this move, but what many people really think is different.

coeliacexpat.bsky.social•33 days ago

He did not vote against "action" , but against this specific action.
The Aschaffenburg murderer should have been deported over a year ago; he wasn't bcs there is a huge backlog and not enough staff - the system is overwhelmed. The action we need is to employ the staff to clear the backlog. Instead

coeliacexpat.bsky.social•33 days ago

... Merz is grandstanding - promising actions which will not work without extra €€€, while *simultaneously* promising tax cuts. Scholz voted against innumeracy.

julianle.bsky.social•33 days ago

Why, in every country is the centre hampered by mediocre people with nothing to offer, and unwilling to stand up bravely against racism, lawlessness and the uber rich?

publicschoolboy.bsky.social•33 days ago

Pay peanuts - get monkeys

julianle.bsky.social•33 days ago

You think if we paid MPs £200, 000 a year, they'd be full of moral courage?

publicschoolboy.bsky.social•33 days ago

not necessarily - but you’d get access to very talented people from the private sector and seeing public service as a career option - as it is no one in the private sector is stepping away from a 200k job to pick up one for 80k. Pay expands the talent “puddle” into a talent pool

teaandbio.bsky.social•33 days ago

I am not Sure about this. I fear a huge part of his electorate are willing to support this madness. inversely there are probably few people that will not vote for him because of that.
I Hope i am wrong...

pangurban.bsky.social•33 days ago

But where do the voters who have been put off the CDU go to? back to Scholz? to the Greens? I can't quite imagine where someone who favoured the CDU but wouldn't go full AfD would feel comfortable. Maybe they just stay home?

iamkosmonaut.bsky.social•33 days ago

Theres plenty of data to show how people vote. This example is from the last GE, and shows to whom the CDU lost (or gained) votes to. Largest loses were to the SPD and Greens.

teaandbio.bsky.social•33 days ago

Without being too optimistic: the green party does everything go present itself as electable for moderate CDU voters (basically very similat positions as Merkel). Whether this works out is another question..

drjstr.bsky.social•33 days ago

I asked myself the same question and came up with the same answer.

genmarshall.bsky.social•33 days ago

Look at the VVD and PVV in NL. When you let that wall down all that happens is they'll turn even more right. Anything to stop the migrant boogeyman. This is what happens when politicians pander to populist nonsense.

twbrown.bsky.social•33 days ago

Will be interesting to see who this benefits. Not the desperate FDP who joined in this farrago but a few points extra for Greens could make a big difference to post-election coalition building.

i-a-h.bsky.social•33 days ago

Nobody outside Germany knows what that mistake was.

sandy-w-anker.bsky.social•33 days ago

Just found this link - you'll need to translate it unless your German's very good but it spells out what's happened... (And I thought it was just us and the US that are going to hell in a handcart)
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/faq-abstimmung-bundestag-merz-antrag-migrationspolitik-100.html

usblue.bsky.social•33 days ago

I agree

rneuschul.bsky.social•33 days ago

Adenauer's spinning in his grave right now.
Glad that my parent's generation aren't here to see this.
BBC radio broadcast a CDU MP saying this was one time and will not lead to coalition. Ha! The dam has been breached.

bartislatfass.bsky.social•33 days ago

Bonafide Nazis were recruited into the civil service, military and intelligence agencies under Adenauer. Intelligence agencies that knew about and protected war criminals. He even had them spy on the social democrats.

He's smiling in the great beyond.

rneuschul.bsky.social•33 days ago

Am aware. Old enough to have met some of them.

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