Germany was stuck in a macroeconomic situation that is unique in its post-Cold War history. Private household consumption and industrial production grew in line with German GDP, alternating as engines of growth. That is no longer the case. 4/x - ThreadSky

sandertordoir.bsky.social • 37 days ago

Germany was stuck in a macroeconomic situation that is unique in its post-Cold War history.

Private household consumption and industrial production grew in line with German GDP, alternating as engines of growth. That is no longer the case.

4/x

Comments

sandertordoir.bsky.social•37 days ago

German industrial production has been declining for five years while private consumption never recovered from the pandemic shock (See Chart).

Fiscal policy that targets both will help.

So after years of not expecting growth, I’m raising my German growth estimates: Germany is back.

5/5.

alecbojalad.com•37 days ago

I didn't realize this was the end of a thread so I thought you were just giving Germany five out of five stars and was really charmed by it.

lesserspottedh.bsky.social•36 days ago

Re private consumption: Any thoughts/plans on how rents can be made more affordable for ordinary people?

wildebees.bsky.social•36 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue
unroll

unroll.skywriter.blue•36 days ago

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silkabelli.bsky.social•36 days ago

It is 2025 and we’re still talking about growth? We’ve know for centuries that there is no unlimited growth on a limited planet. When oh when will we adapt!?!? And yes, that includes talking about it!

glialcellar.bsky.social•37 days ago

Rheinmetall can basically save the automotive workers by buying out the factories and rehiring those workers at probably a small cost of retraining them to build different types of vehicles

miskaknapek.bsky.social•37 days ago

💯

isbi.bsky.social•37 days ago

One should keep in mind the scale here: the automotive industry employs perhaps up to half a million workers; Germany produces millions of vehicles; even the most ambitious plans for military production do not involve such industrial output.

isbi.bsky.social•37 days ago

Although if they can significantly exceed expectations, I have no objections - especially in the context of exporting to numerous European allied countries, where German tanks, transporters, IFVs, and howitzers would be more than welcome.

glialcellar.bsky.social•37 days ago

They have demonstrated high flexibility in terms of deploying more production capacity in adaptive and efficient ways, and they will be producing „battle-tested“ systems, which will likely keep them orders pouring. But even if it keeps some parts of automotive production going,it’s already a win-win

isbi.bsky.social•37 days ago

That would be great news. The key is: the volume of orders; if the customers—Bundeswehr, armies of European countries including Ukraine—order hundreds or even thousands of systems, the price will be significantly lower: the current high prices are largely due to small production runs.