When you quote polls, the results reflect ONLY THE RESPONDENTS to the survey. Of those who answered the survey, 42%-56% gave approval. This is not a poll that you can extrapolate broader opinions from . What approval Trump actually has is not shown by this conservative, small survey. - ThreadSky

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bopstyle.bsky.social • 3 days ago

When you quote polls, the results reflect ONLY THE RESPONDENTS to the survey. Of those who answered the survey, 42%-56% gave approval. This is not a poll that you can extrapolate broader opinions from . What approval Trump actually has is not shown by this conservative, small survey.

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materialactive.bsky.social•3 days ago

That's actually not how polling works. As long as a sample is relatively representative and the respondents selected from the population at random, then you *can* actually extrapolate, with a certain level of confidence (within an inversely relates margin of error).

bopstyle.bsky.social•3 days ago

There are several assumptions explaining methodology that put your polling explanation into the realm of gosh, maybe .

materialactive.bsky.social•3 days ago

Oooh, I'd love to hear your reasons why the General Social Survey is not a valid way of estimating information about the society we live in. Please, tell me more. While you're at it, you can try to explain exit polling to me.

materialactive.bsky.social•3 days ago

If you're just saying you don't trust THIS poll, that's a position I'm more sympathetic to, and I'd indicate instead that while we simply don't get enough information about polling methodology from most political pollsters...

materialactive.bsky.social•3 days ago

political polling seems to clearly correlate with results pretty strongly, even if I'll grant that, because you have to do turnout modeling, they're generally much less precise than an exit poll, or polls that are simply aimed at gathering info on the opinions of society as a whole.

bopstyle.bsky.social•3 days ago

Wrong.

kenklabnik.bsky.social•3 days ago

please explain central limit theorem to the class, then

bopstyle.bsky.social•3 days ago

I wish I could. I was sick that day and missed the lecture.

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