This is a really good point. Putin didn’t invade Ukraine bc he wanted some territory in Donbas; he invaded to break Article 5 and show that NATO was a paper tiger. And that’s what Trump now appears to be giving him. - ThreadSky

mattsteinglass.bsky.social • 16 days ago

This is a really good point. Putin didn’t invade Ukraine bc he wanted some territory in Donbas; he invaded to break Article 5 and show that NATO was a paper tiger. And that’s what Trump now appears to be giving him.

Reposted from Anton Spisak

A new security architecture of Europe in which Nato is irrelevant is what Putin wanted from invading Ukraine. It’s clear today that Putin will get exactly that. His reward for invading a neighbouring country, and our price for acting too naively, too late.

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maarten77.bsky.social•16 days ago

Ok but then what. Try to sit it out for 4 years? Not part ways with the US, because it plays into Putins hands? How are we to deal with the US led by a crime family who sells out its allies? What chances are there for a future return to normalcy if literacy is too low for a functional democracy.

ridder.bsky.social•16 days ago

Why not both?

gilliancarrin.bsky.social•16 days ago

And what I ask is, now that NATO has been shown to be a paper tiger, what of the threats from US to Greenland, Canada etc? "Invade a NATO ally? Never!" Really?

mattsteinglass.bsky.social•16 days ago

To really prove the point and ensure that his mafia state has freedom of action, he will eventually need to hit an actual NATO member and show that allies lack the will to respond or are too weak to make a difference. Which NATO member will it be?

klaaspier.bsky.social•16 days ago

Which is why Europe should do everything to convince and enable Ukraine to keep fighting. It's the only limit on the freedom of this mafia state. At minimum we buy time. And who knows, if Russia gets bogged down long enough it might collapse.

ngineer.bsky.social•16 days ago

As a European, I don't feel good about encouraging Ukraine to fight for us.
But as long as Ukraine wants to fight against Putin, we should support them as best we can!

maxrothbarth.bsky.social•16 days ago

It’ll be Moldova next.

mattsteinglass.bsky.social•16 days ago

Maybe, but not a NATO member so it doesn’t do the trick of punching a hole through the wall and showing there’s nothing behind it

klaaspier.bsky.social•16 days ago

It will be Baltics and Poland. It needs to have sufficient value for Russia as just proving article 5 void also proves it for whole of Europe. Meaning they might only have the opportunity once.

maxrothbarth.bsky.social•16 days ago

Punch with what? I think we’re in danger of forgetting that the last 2 years have shown us that the Russian military is shit.

transitionstate.bsky.social•16 days ago

Latvia or Lithuania, because of Kaliningrad.

nicksargeant.bsky.social•16 days ago

I'd agree the next target would be Lithuania, because of Kaliningrad. However land access to Lithuania is via Belarus, but that country is pretty much all Russian - including the population.

It would also carve off Latvia and Estonia from Western land support.

monospace.com•16 days ago

Poland.

nsarbutts.bsky.social•16 days ago

Pick a Baltic state.

caln19.bsky.social•16 days ago

Not sure what you’re basing this on… he seems genuinely motivated by the historical / nationalistic element

stephenswan.bsky.social•16 days ago

The writing was on the wall when NATO wouldn’t intervene in Syria (Russia did instead); when it wouldn’t intervene in Crimea when Russia invaded; and finally when it refused to intervene in Ukraine when Russia invaded it again. Many of us pleaded with NATO to intervene; it wouldn’t.

hhesterm.bsky.social•16 days ago

I fundamentally disagree. Ukraine was never under the umbrella of Art. 5. Putin invaded to make Ukraine a puppet state (limiting nato would have been a consequence of that). He didn’t even dream of showing that nato is a paper tiger.

antonspisak.bsky.social•16 days ago

Ukraine wasn’t, but the promise of Nato membership for Ukraine was there. That promise no longer exists now, I fear.

hhesterm.bsky.social•16 days ago

I agree with that.

simonwhiteley6.bsky.social•16 days ago

If a new Europe only security org appears, with Ukraine in it, Putin won’t look so clever.

Big if there.

mattsteinglass.bsky.social•16 days ago

No, you’re right, I’m blurring two points. He invaded Ukraine to turn it back into a puppet state and prevent countries in RU’s sphere of influence from gravitating to EU and NATO. He also wants to break Article 5, but that’s a further step. And he may not dare try, we’ll see.

hhesterm.bsky.social•16 days ago

(Mind you, the only disagreement we have is that you think Trump gave him the victory he wanted and I think it is a victory he didn’t even dare to dream of)

xxxverageexxx.bsky.social•16 days ago

Yep this was the reason Ukraine needed to win.

ivh.bsky.social•16 days ago

But if Harris had won? Also, Putin believed Ukraine would fall within days.

mattsteinglass.bsky.social•16 days ago

If Harris had won everything in the world would now be vastly better and safer than it currently is, but I don’t quite get it.

ivh.bsky.social•16 days ago

Exactly. As another Trump victory wasn't really on the horizon at the time of the invasion, invading Ukraine mainly or exclusively to weaken/expose NATO would have been a very high risk bet for Putin (NATO also expanded as a result of the invasion).

mattsteinglass.bsky.social•16 days ago

I think he invaded Ukraine partly to get it away from the EU and back into his mafia protection racket, and partly to show that NATO is unable to protect non-member aspirants, so applying is just volunteering for a hit list. For a while it looked like he made a bad bet. Now it looks better.

ivh.bsky.social•16 days ago

Sweden and Finland (like Ukraine, has land border with Russia) joined NATO, nothing happened. But Ukraine is different. I think there's a strong ideological component. Imperialism, Dugin... strategy was secondary.

orhan-sabanci137.bsky.social•11 days ago

You're giving Putin way too much credit. He was greedy and wanted Ukraine, period.

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