This is all happening at a very inconvenient time. So we have to think very seriously about how it might play out. Here is how I think things could go from here:🧵5/17
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Germany has trend-setting elections ahead and they (RU and US) know it and use every shit to destabilize Europe and influence the outcome according to their oligarch-managed right-wing agenda. What times are we facing? Very tough times getting even worse. Pls stay together Europe and make us strong.
It’s never a convenient time. Actually it is the best time. Adversity is the best teacher. It sharpens the mind. Ukraine wouldn’t have become a bulwark of freedom in Europe if its survival weren’t on the line
There is a strong possibility that the meeting between Putin and Trump will result in agreement. Putin is in the position to ask for it all. He might demand an election, the occupied territories, and Ukrainian neutrality. All these ideas have been teased.🧵6/17
Putin being strong depends 💯 on #Trump and on European/Scholz's weakness. This could be different but Europe is out now – from negotiations and it's own future including 🇺🇦
I'm not sure Putin is in that strong of a position. Conquering all of Ukraine will not make the slightest difference to Russia's serious internal difficulties--budget crisis, worker shortage, demographic challenge, deteriorating infrastructure, non-defense industrial stagnation--plus Trump wants
to LOWER world oil prices and INCREASE US drilling. How will either of those help Putin? If Trump's advisors are not telling him all this--which, you'd think, any serious "dealmaker" would want and need to know because this knowledge would put him at an advantage in any negotiations--or if they are
telling him but he's not listening, then, yes, Putin may be in a stronger position. And Trump will be revealed conclusively as a stooge, a patsy, a pushover and easy mark. Europe is well-advised, alas, to start planning to go its own way.
If Trump agrees, which he might well do, Putin will declare a complete victory. This is what he wanted to achieve and he got it, he will say. Let’s not forget that the threat of additional sanctions was mentioned only if Putin does not agree to negotiate. Oh but he will.🧵7/17
I’m sorry that you’re going through this, but to be honest you should’ve prepared.
If his first term didn’t tell you anything or how he talked when he wasn’t president, with all leaders of the world BEHIND THE GOVERNMENTS BACK .
I mean, we knew .
President Trump will dump this dead cat deal at Europe's door and say take it or leave it. Then it's up to Europe to decide whether or not to stick up for Ukraine and support rejection of the deal.🧵8/17
Europe appears weakened by 2 countries that are clearly on Russia’ side: Hungary and Slovakia.
The EU must eventually take a firm position against those countries: fully in, or out.
There’s too much at stake to allow ambiguous positions.
People who say that Europe must be at the table should remember that to be invited, you have to matter. If Europe commits to money, troops and a European path for Ukraine, we will make our own table and Ukraine, Putin, and Trump can be invited. But time is running out.🧵9/17
If EU leaders are smart, they talk to Zelensky and tell him EU are prepared to put troops on the ground to enact a security guarantee.
With that up his sleeve, he will be empowered to not require anything less from Trump. And since Putin will never agree to that it will expose him…
All I want is our European leaders finally making the decision to organise our collective security. Why is that not happening? Why is everybody acting as if this is not happening in front of our waking eyes? I don't understand what is going on; everything is so intransparent.
Trump was invited and he hasn’t brought anything to the table. In fact, Trump is a Putin stooge. Ukraine should go to the Europe emergency meeting and cut a deal with Europe.
Ukraine must be kicking themselves for giving up their nuclear weapons. America has lost respect globally.
Europe has plenty of leverage. Trade wars is something two can play at. Sending a high level EU delegation to Canada Mexico, India and China might sober up if not trump at least some of the asskissing business people around him. Remember: interdependence. A rich market of 300k mil people matters.
If Europe is unable to stand up, Ukraine will be forced to rely on itself and a smaller group of allies that continue to give support. Threats to European security will grow immensely. Putin will get braver, meaning more war in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and beyond.🧵10/17
Will dirt on Palantir help? Thiel Karp & Mercer put Trump into office in the first place! They both sold their souls to Putin a long time ago! The dirt is that Palntir along with many tech bros dev their tech by interfacing unsuspecting kids to train LLM's! Hard to prove? Yes! But true! Very true!
Sad reading but very insightful. Thank you. Lets hope Europe stands together and rises up to the occasion. At least enough of us so Ukraine can withstand Russian imperialism
There is something that Europe can do very easily which Bill Browder has been trailing through the Munich Conference - Europe has the bulk of the $300bn of frozen Russian assets and if Europe hands this over to Ukraine, Trump no longer has the "Trump card" of removing its support from Ukraine.
Great thoughts. Yes Europe standing up to Russia would mean blood,deaths etc, but not standing up to Russia also ends with blood death etc, just slightly delayed.
Can you help me (Canada) understand why EU is so dependant on the US? EU has a pop. of 450 mil. US is 340 mil.
EU GDP is 20 $T and the US is 30 $T. That is a lot of resources to work w for the EU. Why the profound reliance on the US?
Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty.🧵11/17
Lets go for an United Europe, including Ukraine, with Zelenskyi as its president. The man knows all about war/diplomacy/crisis management/is trustworthy/is coureagous. His speeches are extremely inspiring, his personality is outstanding, makes him best man for the actual crisis, confronting RU/USA.
For Europe, it’s not about astronomical sums. Ammo for Himars and Patriots, more air defenses, more armored vehicles and drones, drones, drones. Neither Russia nor Ukraine seems to be able to break through with heavy armor. So it's about keep defending and strangling Russia's economy.
Do you think Felon47 is using Gaza as a bargaining chip or is it simply collateral? Does it seem like Europe will step up? Certainly they see how dangerous Felon47 is?
I fear a worse scenario. Europe is too fragmented to react. I fear it will end up splitting and then, in years, reconstitute itself into a smaller, homogeneous and more integrated group.
But it will be rebuilt on a cemetery of civil and social rights that fell between Trumpizilla, Putin and China
We are on the brink of a massive world divide between the haves & have nots. The wealthy pit neighbor against neighbor by starting culture wars then mop up the mess by scooping up land & instilling a puppet government
Italian-American who has lived in both countries. seeing hate spread🥺 is too sad
Even before the election, I warned friends that if Trump wins, he would ditch America's allies, and that they would turn to China if no one else would come to their aid. The same will hold true in Africa. It's exhausting trying to get people to recognise what is really so obvious.
Thx for your sobering thread. However, I should have put off reading it until the end of my day, rather than before I've even had my morning coffee. Now I'm going to be depressed all day today, and likely much, much longer!
The U.S. and all of us WILL be drawn in over time. It may take years but we will be drawn in. It happened in WW1. It happened in WW2. Don't let history repeat itself.
Which is exactly what Zelensky told you, and Trump from 2016 -2020. Zelensky has said what would happen from the start and been right about everything. Listen to him
They are closing agencies, breaching contracts with suppliers and organisations all over the world. So what is a paper worth with the signatures of Trump and Putin? It will be just a collector item.
The US can only negotiate a ‘solution’ as it’s the main provider of support to Ukraine. Let’s pull that away and ensure sufficient EU+UK support to ditch any ideas of neutrality.
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If his first term didn’t tell you anything or how he talked when he wasn’t president, with all leaders of the world BEHIND THE GOVERNMENTS BACK .
I mean, we knew .
Already no one believes that the US would honour article 5.
The EU must eventually take a firm position against those countries: fully in, or out.
There’s too much at stake to allow ambiguous positions.
#HungaryInOrOut
#SlovakiaInOrOut
This is not the time for traitors from within.
Russia is on its knees and Europe has strong legs and feet
With that up his sleeve, he will be empowered to not require anything less from Trump. And since Putin will never agree to that it will expose him…
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Ukraine must be kicking themselves for giving up their nuclear weapons. America has lost respect globally.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1303432/total-bilateral-aid-to-ukraine/
EU GDP is 20 $T and the US is 30 $T. That is a lot of resources to work w for the EU. Why the profound reliance on the US?
But it will be rebuilt on a cemetery of civil and social rights that fell between Trumpizilla, Putin and China
I still believe that Europe will step up,stiffened with the resolve & courage of former Soviet states.
The US must never be written off. Europe/EU needs to go around Trumpism & keep faith in the American people.
Italian-American who has lived in both countries. seeing hate spread🥺 is too sad
Our world is changing, and not for the better.
We need to step up when it comes to defense.
The US will lose out. Military procurement should no longer see the US as a viable supplier.
The US might end up with zero influence within Europe.
Been a known agent for over 37 years. Americans are stupid and ignore it.