Europe is technically fully able to adapt and rise to this challenge, but the question remains one of political will, or the lack of it. Indecision will lead in only one direction, and it won’t be pretty.🧵11/17
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
The Baltic countries and Ukraine have been inspirational in throwing off Soviet/Russian control. Most Americans are 100% behind you! Ignore the bots, dolts and loudmouths and tell us how we can help
I have always felt that China is looking for a way to emerge as the victor, and that is worryingly possible. If the US and Europe don't offer security to Ukraine, China might step into the gap, using its leverage on Russia. They could even offer a better deal than Trump's.🧵12/17
China will fill the space the USA vacates. Same with US Aid, China will step in. As the US retreats from global involvement, China will step in. I don’t understand why the US thinks this is smart.
Is there any hint that China really plans to do it? This would be undoubtedly bad for Europe, but could be better for Ukraine -- and there would be some justice in that. But China has never done anything remotely close to this before and it would take a lot of audacity to do it. Does it have it?
That’s very possible. Nothing bad about it. Years ago before the full scale invasion, I wrote an article in Kyiv Post that Ukraine might look to China as an ally.
Ukraine has a lot to offer to China in return for security—rebuilding, ports, agricultural produce. There will be those in Europe who will support this. This gambit could be called a "Kissinger", splitting the US and Europe as Kissinger split the Soviet Union and China.🧵13/17
It gets worse. China as Ukraine's protector would start replacing the US in the role of keeping Russia out of the Eastern Flank. EU countries in the East would be dependent on China's protection and the racketeering would spread West.🧵14/17
How is the hypothetical racketeering of China worse than actual direct racketeering the US is doing now. US descent into oligarchy is only going to get worse in the coming years. Ideally, EU should stop twiddling their thumbs if we don't want to be "looted" by other powers.
Well so far we have decades of china as an emerging empire and i havent seen they support coups or violent paycopaths installing puppet regimes as europe and us empires have been doing
At this point it’s a toss up what’s worse: white supremacy trump musk fascism or Xi communism. The West chose uncle Joe over Dolfi after all. A monster for sure but perhaps it was the correct decision
What needs to happen to avoid this all-too-likely disaster? My hope lies with Europe, with the appearance of a leader with Churchill’s resolve, the spirit to say we will never surrender, we will defend all of Europe, from Ukraine to Portugal.🧵15/17
When I read this thread, I feel like u or Kallas are the one Eur needs right now. Ur analysis feels spot on. Has Europe exhausted all thinking re using the 300Bb Ru assets? I think that $ could buy time to give Eur/Ukr more resources to be make bold moves that protect freedom.
Germany has recognized it has been underfunding its military and therefore proposed a special fund ("Sondervermögen") to invest in its army.
Can the EU do the same?
It would be more effective and more efficient to unionize military spending in the 🇪🇺.
An honest question: why would this be a disaster, considering the current state of affairs in the US? If China is willing to contain the territorial expansion of Russia and be a trustworthy commercial partner, what's the downside?
I am fully aware that my suggestion leads only to blood, toil, tears and sweat. But we have done it before and we can do it again. The alternative is to rebuild the continent after another devastating war, and that would be much harder and take much more time.🧵16/17
So I return from Munich to Lithuania with dark thoughts on my mind. And while I accept that the statements made by the US Vice President were the necessary medicine for a lethargic Europe, I just pray the cure doesn’t kill the patient.🧵17/17
We in America who fiercely disagree with Trump are also desperately wondering who might be our Churchill, or our Zelensky, to fight his hold on the country on our behalf.
The war goes on. There will be no leader unless there is an European army.
Bring Russia down economically, enforce sanctions better.
There can't be so much competition between making weapons for deterrence or using them in a hot war in Ukraine directly.
EU war tax? More German debt soon too...
Interesting: I’d already started wondering what Ukraine’s raid on Mers El-Kébir could look like if they decide Trump’s Diktatfrieden ain’t for them. However, outside of UA itself and despite my great respect for Nordics & Baltics, I sadly see no one who unites Churchill’s resolve and influence.
I don't think that's even remotely possible. There's no leader with enough political strength to even consider making that gamble.
Macron has the grandeur, but he's a lame duck. Germany offers nothing. Nobody would follow Meloni or much less Sanchez even if they had the inclination. Britain is gone
Maybe south Europe, or Mediterranean Europe, don't want involvement nor saving, you know... I mean, all this, it has always been a northern thing... Culture bias if you want to say it...
True, I am afraid China won already the fight for No. 1 against the USA without firing a single shot. Musk on their payroll, leaves only the MAGA fools from project 2025, no match for the CCP.
we do need China in on a EU-led peace initiative and conference in a neutral EU member state (seat of @UN & @OSCE ). Ukraine to get int. security guarantees, but not to join NATO. Crimea to be recognised russian, if Russia withdraws from all territory occupied in its war of aggression (since 2022).
Fully agree. It is time to separate the wheat from the chaff regarding European leaders starting with Scholz and crack down heavily on internal fascists. But many in Europe soon would prefer China as a guarantor of security if necessary than the criminal-fascist regime in the US with justification
Comments
I don't like it any more than you do, but its not the first time democracies had to allgn with Communists against Fascists
Can the EU do the same?
It would be more effective and more efficient to unionize military spending in the 🇪🇺.
This is your solution, really?
Bring Russia down economically, enforce sanctions better.
There can't be so much competition between making weapons for deterrence or using them in a hot war in Ukraine directly.
EU war tax? More German debt soon too...
Hoping exactly the same.
Macron has the grandeur, but he's a lame duck. Germany offers nothing. Nobody would follow Meloni or much less Sanchez even if they had the inclination. Britain is gone
eff Russia