New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me.
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
Access the full piece via this link:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europes-nuclear-trilemma
Short summary below:
1/x
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
Access the full piece via this link:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europes-nuclear-trilemma
Short summary below:
1/x
Comments
For example: Bunker busters on russian NPP sitting near St Petersburg?
Battlefield nuclear weapons seem like the logical step.
(If there really is any logic to any of this insanity)
Land mine treaties will be next to fall..
2 points.
1. 2nd last paragraph is now moot.
2. French nuke doctrine specifically includes demonstration nuke strikes as expression of boba fides. If I understand correctly.
EU minus US nuclear deterrence is a question of when not if. We are in a new post, post war world.
#KrasnovAtWork
See here for an analysis.
https://youtu.be/uHVW4l9ueVM?si=4KI3-57GJVZuKGrc
But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.
2/x
In navigating this trilemma, we argue that Europe should choose credible and effective deterrence against Russia and nuclear nonproliferation.
3/x
The alternatives, however, would be even more dangerous.
4/4
Any individual Eastern Flank country would be hard pressed to produce nuclear weapons, but there are already multiple calls to do so together. So I'm afraid this option is quite attractive.
#NuclearStrategy
#EuropeanSecurity
#DeterrenceDilemma
#USAlliance