The model sees Abdul Carter as the clear-cut No. 1 pass rusher in this class, which is no surprise, but it actually likes Carter quite a bit less than it liked Dallas Turner a year ago.
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The model is an ensemble of two random forests with inputs that include:
-College sack production
-College pressure and pass rush win rate from PFF
-Scouts Inc. Grade
-Age
-Some FPI information
-Position
–Some measurement/combine information (in one randomforest but not the other)
The way FPI is incorporated is that it looks at the average difference in rating between the player's team and their opponents.
So for Ezeiruaku, for example, his 16.5 sacks are more impressive because BC wasn't generally that much better than their opponents (easier to get sacks when winning!)
The projections always *feel* low. But it’s really just a reminder of how often prospects ultimately fail to produce major numbers. I haven’t updated this for this year but I think this chart from a year ago makes that point
Overall, I think these are really positive numbers for Ezeiruaku considering where he was drafted. And exceptional for Patriots fifth-rounder Bradyn Swinson.
On the flip side: tough forecast for Mykel Williams.
Comments
-College sack production
-College pressure and pass rush win rate from PFF
-Scouts Inc. Grade
-Age
-Some FPI information
-Position
–Some measurement/combine information (in one randomforest but not the other)
So for Ezeiruaku, for example, his 16.5 sacks are more impressive because BC wasn't generally that much better than their opponents (easier to get sacks when winning!)
https://x.com/SethWalder/status/1790791156629938515
On the flip side: tough forecast for Mykel Williams.
https://x.com/SethWalder/status/1790790323095970008