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Shoutout to "ZWKFootball" from the other site, who won my draft pool withj high upside strategy of trying get direct hits, and had them at 7, 14, 22 and 27. They needed all of those to beat out @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social, who finished second.

submitted 4 hours ago • 0 comments

I was critical of the Vikings for passing up the Giants and Falcons trade offers (maybe Eagles too?). But they aren't alone in deserving that criticism. The Chargers, for example, took a first-round running back instead of (presumably) either of those deals. Far from ideal.

submitted 1 day ago • 2 comments

this does make the kenny pickett trade even funnier than when it happened

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

When teams have traded a future 3 for a fourth-round pick since 2011, they've landed: Frank Alexander Shamarko Thomas Gabe Wright Da'shawn Hand Kelee Ringo Anthony Bradford Jaylen Wright Giovanni Manu Jury's still out on some of those guys, but those trades have been a mess.

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

one thing about trading future thirds to move up on day 3 is that you shouldn't do it

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

My two main draft selection observations are that: A. OL mostly went earlier than expected B. WR went in a far different order than expected

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

we stan prospect x

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Double trade down for the Patriots. Nice! This trade is more valuable for New England than the one with Carolina a few minutes ago.

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Justin Walley: 186.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Nick Martin: 222.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Pat Bryant: 195.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Lions sacrificing value to trade up just to reach?

submitted 3 days ago • 5 comments

Jacksonville's trade with Detroit is the best deal of Day 2, per our draft pick valuations. Jaguars gained the equivalent of a mid to late third-round pick in surplus value. That's assuming no discount for future picks and future picks in middle of round (except comp pick).

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Pre-draft we had Isaac TeSlaa's median draft selection at 178.

submitted 3 days ago • 3 comments

The Carolina-Denver trade we had as even (as did the Johnson chart). Doesn't always take a premium to move up!

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

Double trade down for Raiders. Free money ✅✅.

submitted 3 days ago • 4 comments

and again for this Raiders/Texans deal

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Same story for this Bills/Bears trade

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Bears have potential to be very fun

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

We've got this Dolphins trade as almost an identical level of overpay as the Seahawks a few minutes ago. In both cases the trades were almost perfectly even on the Johnson chart. The Johnson chart still drives deals in the NFL, all these years later (it shouldn't, but it does).

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

By our chart, Seahawks deal is an "overpay" by the equivalent of roughly a fourth-round pick. On the pricier side among all Day 2 trades but nowhere near like the Fiske deal last year or the Erik McCoy deal in 2020.

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Are there live draft odds anywhere? Given all the buzz about Shough going ahead of Sanders ahead of tonight's action, I wonder what the number be for Shough to be next QB selected.

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments

would be verrrrrry interested to know what dallas turned down here

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

Talking with someone from another team just now who said they thought non-zero chance Pearce would have made it to Atlanta at 46. Checked our numbers: we had 15% chance he gets there pre-draft, so probably a bit higher at time of trade. So ~1 in 5 chance Falcons traded up for nothing!

submitted 4 days ago • 2 comments

Trade grades for tonight's deals! www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

Three ways to lose at the NFL Draft: 1. Reach for players before they are likely to be selected 2. Draft low value positions early 3. Trade up and/or fail to trade down Anyway just thinking about the Vikings

submitted 4 days ago • 11 comments

Falcons trade up was just brutal. Team has an unknown at QB, which means the downside risk is substantial -- exactly when you don't want to give up a future first if you don't have to. Also: Green/Ezeiruaku still on the board! Pearce wasn't even last edge.

submitted 4 days ago • 7 comments

Falcons giving up a future 1 to move up and take Pearce???? That's a yikes and a half.

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

If you are the Vikings how are you possibly turning down the deal the Giants made with the Texans to take Donovan Jackson??

submitted 4 days ago • 8 comments

Some prominent TV time for Chargers analytics just over Harbaugh's right shoulder

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

The draft day predictor updates live during the draft! Here's the latest on pick 21. espnanalytics.com/draft-predic...

submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Shoutout to "ZWKFootball" from the other site, who won my draft pool withj high upside strategy of trying get direct hits, and had them at 7, 14, 22 and 27. They needed all of those to beat out @ryanmccrystal.bsky.social, who finished second.

I was critical of the Vikings for passing up the Giants and Falcons trade offers (maybe Eagles too?). But they aren't alone in deserving that criticism. The Chargers, for example, took a first-round running back instead of (presumably) either of those deals. Far from ideal.

this does make the kenny pickett trade even funnier than when it happened

When teams have traded a future 3 for a fourth-round pick since 2011, they've landed: Frank Alexander Shamarko Thomas Gabe Wright Da'shawn Hand Kelee Ringo Anthony Bradford Jaylen Wright Giovanni Manu Jury's still out on some of those guys, but those trades have been a mess.

one thing about trading future thirds to move up on day 3 is that you shouldn't do it

My two main draft selection observations are that: A. OL mostly went earlier than expected B. WR went in a far different order than expected

we stan prospect x

Double trade down for the Patriots. Nice! This trade is more valuable for New England than the one with Carolina a few minutes ago.

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Justin Walley: 186.

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Nick Martin: 222.

Our pre-draft median draft selection for Pat Bryant: 195.

Lions sacrificing value to trade up just to reach?

Jacksonville's trade with Detroit is the best deal of Day 2, per our draft pick valuations. Jaguars gained the equivalent of a mid to late third-round pick in surplus value. That's assuming no discount for future picks and future picks in middle of round (except comp pick).

Pre-draft we had Isaac TeSlaa's median draft selection at 178.

The Carolina-Denver trade we had as even (as did the Johnson chart). Doesn't always take a premium to move up!

Double trade down for Raiders. Free money ✅✅.

and again for this Raiders/Texans deal

Same story for this Bills/Bears trade

Bears have potential to be very fun

We've got this Dolphins trade as almost an identical level of overpay as the Seahawks a few minutes ago. In both cases the trades were almost perfectly even on the Johnson chart. The Johnson chart still drives deals in the NFL, all these years later (it shouldn't, but it does).

By our chart, Seahawks deal is an "overpay" by the equivalent of roughly a fourth-round pick. On the pricier side among all Day 2 trades but nowhere near like the Fiske deal last year or the Erik McCoy deal in 2020.

Are there live draft odds anywhere? Given all the buzz about Shough going ahead of Sanders ahead of tonight's action, I wonder what the number be for Shough to be next QB selected.

would be verrrrrry interested to know what dallas turned down here

Talking with someone from another team just now who said they thought non-zero chance Pearce would have made it to Atlanta at 46. Checked our numbers: we had 15% chance he gets there pre-draft, so probably a bit higher at time of trade. So ~1 in 5 chance Falcons traded up for nothing!

Trade grades for tonight's deals! www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

Three ways to lose at the NFL Draft: 1. Reach for players before they are likely to be selected 2. Draft low value positions early 3. Trade up and/or fail to trade down Anyway just thinking about the Vikings

Falcons trade up was just brutal. Team has an unknown at QB, which means the downside risk is substantial -- exactly when you don't want to give up a future first if you don't have to. Also: Green/Ezeiruaku still on the board! Pearce wasn't even last edge.

Falcons giving up a future 1 to move up and take Pearce???? That's a yikes and a half.

If you are the Vikings how are you possibly turning down the deal the Giants made with the Texans to take Donovan Jackson??

Some prominent TV time for Chargers analytics just over Harbaugh's right shoulder

The draft day predictor updates live during the draft! Here's the latest on pick 21. espnanalytics.com/draft-predic...

I know there were a couple rumblings of him this early but that's the first big reach, by Dallas. If you want Tyler Booker, trade down first.

I'm grading trades as usual, here we go!! www.espn.com/nfl/draft202...

NOT NOW CHROME