While I agree for the time immediate after this election, the long-term trend suggests this could be a real turning point. Especially if CDU/CSU plus AfD have a mathematical majority in the next Bundestag, there will be constant pressure from the right to use AfD support at least as a pressure point - ThreadSky

nvondarza.bsky.social • 47 days ago

While I agree for the time immediate after this election, the long-term trend suggests this could be a real turning point. Especially if CDU/CSU plus AfD have a mathematical majority in the next Bundestag, there will be constant pressure from the right to use AfD support at least as a pressure point

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aphclarkson.bsky.social•47 days ago

Agree, the electoral cycle in Germany to worry about is 2029, after four years in which the AfD is the only opposition on the right.

jonworth.eu•47 days ago

Also hell knows what a Merz run coalition is going to look like, or how it will work. It'll be bumpy as he's not as guarded as Scholz or Merkel, but does that mean unpopular and criticised, or coalition partners carve out their areas? We'll see.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•47 days ago

I struggle to see how the SPD comes out of another coalition in better shape than it is in now. But that won't stop them from negotiating a deal with Merz anyway. The SPD increasingly resembles the 1990s FDP in the regard of desperation to cling to power out of fear of oblivion in opposition.

jonworth.eu•47 days ago

Yep. Agree 100%. I think the only certainty is that Scholz will not be Kanzlerkandidat in 2029, but who is, and what shape the SPD will be in, is anyone's guess.

manuelmueller.foederalist.eu•47 days ago

I agree. This sort of normalisation of far-right positions will make it more and more difficult for the CDU to maintain its refusal to a coalition with an AfD.

By signalling to voters that the differences between the two parties aren't that big after all, they're putting pressure on themselves.

jonworth.eu•47 days ago

But I don't think they're doing it because they have a strategy. I think they're doing it because they don't know what they're doing, and have some weird notion of being able to appeal to AfD voters this way. It's done out of weakness and ineptness more than out of strength.

jrowanbxl.bsky.social•47 days ago

This does sound a lot like the UK Conservatives' death wish strategy re Reform (though obviously CDU and Tories have rather different political fortunes right now)

manuelmueller.foederalist.eu•47 days ago

Yes, absolutely. But medium-term (not short-term!), this lack of a strategy could bring them to a point where the political costs of doing a coalition with the AfD becomes smaller than those of keeping the firewall.

jonworth.eu•47 days ago

Right. Abolutely. But I am not sure they have done any serious thinking about that point.

aphclarkson.bsky.social•47 days ago

There is also a strand of golden-age nostalgia among quite a few CDU figures of Merz's generation for the supposed centre-right certainties of the Kohl era. While this is myth-making rather than any real reflection of what actually happened in the 80s and 90s, it affects decisionmaker perspectives

jonworth.eu•47 days ago

Yes. Medium term I am not sure. But for this election I am sure enough.

nmadden.bsky.social•47 days ago

Is an AFD government possible in 2029? A lot can happen in four years.

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