Latest Silver forecast:
Chance of winning
🟦 Harris: 58% (new high)
🟥 Trump: 42%
Electoral Votes
🟦 Harris: 284 🏆
🟥 Trump: 254
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 68-32%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 62-38%
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris 62-38%
Nevada - 🔵 Harris 59-41%
Chance of winning
🟦 Harris: 58% (new high)
🟥 Trump: 42%
Electoral Votes
🟦 Harris: 284 🏆
🟥 Trump: 254
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 68-32%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 62-38%
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Harris 62-38%
Nevada - 🔵 Harris 59-41%
Comments
It's nice that it's less panic inducing that he's no longer putting Trump ahead, but it wasn't by much then, and this isn't by much now.
I lost track of the article I posted here which pretty well debunks both Silver in particular and polling as a science in general. Basically Silver fits a pattern since ever since polling started: we found a foolproof way to predict! two cycles later: well, shit.
The reason he shot to fame in the Obama years was because he called 49 out of 50 states, once if not twice.
He hasn't batted anything like that since, and he's been quite wrong several times.
Not saying I think he must be right at all, just pointing that out.
Obviously everybody else has improved their models since then, but the guy can put together a decent poll model when he puts his mind to it.
and yet: even without that, his ass is still broke.
Someone calculated that if he'd just invested his inheritance and left it alone, he'd have about 80 billion dollars by now.
I suspect this reflects changes in the inflation, interest rates and employment.
From the beginning it felt like his model weighed fundamentals much more heavily than 538 and the other modellers.
It was a terrible night
He has blown thru his reputation from my perspective
I get the scarring but it's better to hope. I think.
Time to remove that stubborn orange stain. 🇺🇸