WTI is in the $50 range. Alberta budget forecasted $68. For every dollar difference it is a $750 million hit. Despite what Smith said, Trump's tariffs were not a big win for Alberta.
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CDN blends are doing ok. That’s relative of course. Low crude prices, refineries benefit. Crude prices still under what the Alberta Treasury needs to balance its books.
Even with Danielle running down to the Trump regime 7 times to bend over, the tariffs of 10% were applied. For now. Trump is very unpredictable,+ he may change his mind back to 25%.
Alberta should have diversified+ built their own sour crude oil refineries at home. We would be safer than we are now
How many refineries have been built in the last 20 years ?Syncrude you will recall required an investment by the GoC, Gov Ontario, and the GoA to survive. There were plans for 12 upgraders. https://tldrify.com/1foa Alberta owns a refinery. https://tldrify.com/1fob It’s finances aren’t pretty. https://tldrify.com/1foc
This article is 10 years old. It does not take into account the COVID era or the fact we have an upgrader in Redwater. But Alberta needs it for our bitumen/ Sour crude, not just blends. If we refined it ourselves we could sell the finished product to more markets and not limit ourselves to the US.
Cenovus has two sour crude refineries in Ohio and Wisconsin, make $ regardless of market conditions. A 10% tariff can be shared between the producer and the refiner with out drastic impact. Will Cenovus do that, without passing it on? Depends on the refining margins they get with low crude price.
There’s no safe harbour for #Alberta 's oil industry. A 20% drop in demand during Covid, drove oil prices negative. Saudi Arabia is holding 3mb/d off the market. Another $10 drop, puts Oilsands crude on the margin. The Alberta budget is already in disarray.
West Texas is light crude. We have heavy crude, but make blends. This chart is not complete.
We need to diversify put our eggs in more than one basket. If we refine and or blend we can attract more buyers and open more markets. We've built everything on the US relationship. Which is not working now
Major breakdown at ... well i adjust for a historical Canadiana moment ... @54.40$ WTI unless OPEC rescinds proposed May increase and EU action muted on tariff response. Demand side driven as cuts hit job numbers in next two months.
Oversold side at present are gas rich plays in BC and Montney especially with lng canada coming up. That these firms can spin profit at current prices in AECO is bonkers.
Interesting though as we up exports from tmx for heavy oil and lng canada .. whereever that gets shipped it could displace American cargo and thus worsen usa trade numbers with asian countries. We will be a blip in supply to start but in this tariff era we could find good spot markets.
I believe OPEC decided to open the taps on the same day that Trump shit all over the markets, so that didn’t help. Why wasn’t she buttering up OPEC leaders too?
For decades, AB governments have kept on putting their financial eggs in mostly one basket. You think they would have learned to diversify in 2014/2015 when oil prices crashed. So AB keeps making terrible economic decisions and then expect the Feds to bail them out 😫😫
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Alberta should have diversified+ built their own sour crude oil refineries at home. We would be safer than we are now
We need to diversify put our eggs in more than one basket. If we refine and or blend we can attract more buyers and open more markets. We've built everything on the US relationship. Which is not working now
Add that to her list of cockamamie thoughts , words and actions
Could a provincial sales tax be coming to #Alberta to make up the shortfall?