This sounds a bit closer to the mark than Nordhaus's Nobel Prize effort
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/16/economic-growth-could-fall-50-over-20-years-from-climate-shocks-say-actuaries
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/16/economic-growth-could-fall-50-over-20-years-from-climate-shocks-say-actuaries
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(A lot, they know a lot and deal in actual data just in case anyone didn’t think this was sarcasm)