It's only barely in my wheelhouse (I have a degree in statistics and know a little about the theory of how LLMs work and are made, but can't do it myself), but the hype around AI has been giving Big Short vibes for a while.
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
The sell-off is not about the failure of AI to deliver, but actually that DeepSeek has managed to put something incredibly powerful together on a much smaller budget.
It’s not an AI bubble popping, it’s a hardware cost bubble popping.
I agree with you on the specifics of DeepSeek. But we need another round of cocktails to get into the rest of it. My cynical view is that there is also an AI application bubble. The problems AI can solve are more limited than what is sold & the world is running around with hammers looking for nails
Many of us know that. But the lay public does not. They're being told AI can solve every problem and being conned into dumping personal finances and now federal tax dollars into a panacea that will not materialize.
- The LLMs introduced widely 2y ago are far worse than what we have today. I'm optimistic that we'll continue to see steady improvements.
- I find my $20/mo for Claude to be money well spent!
- Excited for more use cases as costs/energy fall by orders of mag.
That being said, the differences between what the tech actually does (currently) -vs- what the marketing sounds like are pretty bad in many cases. "AI solutions" gives me DeepCringe.
Agreed. I think there are things LLMs can do that are helpful. I do not think they can do, nor will ever be able to do, the things the marketing materials are claiming. If a company was marketing a hammer that could build a house for you, we'd all laugh at them.
Comments
It’s not an AI bubble popping, it’s a hardware cost bubble popping.
- The LLMs introduced widely 2y ago are far worse than what we have today. I'm optimistic that we'll continue to see steady improvements.
- I find my $20/mo for Claude to be money well spent!
- Excited for more use cases as costs/energy fall by orders of mag.