Been saying this for a loooonnnnggggg time, but I still think Powell will have to RAISE RATES. I know no one agrees, but I'm sticking to this prediction. #EconSky #FinSky - ThreadSky

bonfire25.bsky.social • 11 days ago

Been saying this for a loooonnnnggggg time, but I still think Powell will have to RAISE RATES. I know no one agrees, but I'm sticking to this prediction.

#EconSky
#FinSky

Comments

newyorker8910.bsky.social•10 days ago

Trump will fire Powell if rates aren't lowered and hire another brain dead lackey.

lamjones.bsky.social•11 days ago

whether he actually will or not, his seat is going to get hot hot hot with inflation spiking when he knows growth and employment almost as fast ... stagflation is a mess

lamjones.bsky.social•11 days ago

growth and employment receding I mean

bonfire25.bsky.social•11 days ago

He's knows he's out of a job soon so he's going to cement his legacy. He's a huge Volcker fan so...

lamjones.bsky.social•11 days ago

and absolutely none of them want to be remembered like Burns

riz4robot.bsky.social•11 days ago

if he's a volcker fan why didn't he normalize rates when he said he would instead of backing down and reversing course?

I think his master is the market

bonfire25.bsky.social•11 days ago

If you're talking about rate changes in Trump 1.0. that happened bc Trump bullied him endlessly. THIS TIME-he knows he's headed for the door and gives zero fucks about Trump.

russharding.bsky.social•10 days ago

We are still running on the Biden economy. As soon as Oj takes all the energy out of it and makes it a trump economy we’re toast. History tells us that republicans are bad for the economy but Cheeto face is taking us to a whole new sub-basement.

russharding.bsky.social•10 days ago

There is no doubt. Initially they will want to drop them to appease Oj (orange jesus) but as stagflation sets in it will get ugly. We are already seeing a cratering of consumer confidence. Companies are beginning layoffs in response to the tariff debacle.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

There's a reason Powell keeps tap dancing. HE KNOWS what's coming and he can't cement his legacy with a recession caused by a demented madman.

redrabbit1289.bsky.social•10 days ago

At this point you would hope the level of crisis in our country would have people thinking beyond their immediate legacy (selfishly) and with an eye towards difficult but necessary decisions to save the COUNTRY. Sadly you’re probably right though.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

If Powell has to raise rates to control hyperinflation-that will be for the good of the country. He's not perfect but he's learned a lot along the way and knows what's coming.

redrabbit1289.bsky.social•10 days ago

Hopefully. But if Trump is still calling for rates to drop and he doesn’t want to disagree with oj on his way out the door… he could agree with the sitting president idiot and retire peacefully or go out being attacked by Trump and maga for making the right decision which will be spun anyway.

normanbarnacle.bsky.social•10 days ago

I agree. Look at the late 1970s as a model.

mrcrickets.bsky.social•11 days ago

He’s between a rock and a hard place. Inflation will rise and joblessness will increase. Not sure that interest rate cuts or increases will do anything to negate the tariffs. Guess we will see

alkisky.bsky.social•11 days ago

Inflation will only rise if interest rate-cuts enable inflation to rise. Absent lower interest rates, the higher cost of tariffed goods will reduce demand for other goods because most people won’t be able to afford them. Those goods will drop in price as sellers become desperate to attract buyers.

jewjewbee.bsky.social•10 days ago

In other words you are predicting recession caused by tariffs reducing disposable income. Recession = less jobs, driving disposable income down further. Less pressure on employers to increase salaries decreases sales and prices destroying profits and investment. It’s a vicious recessionary cycle.

jdself.bsky.social•11 days ago

Also, what goods?

jdself.bsky.social•11 days ago

Lol. Not an economist, I see. Small business is now on life support. Sellers aren't dropping prices at big businesses. Small businesses can't afford the manufacturing product they get imported. It's the worst economic plan of all of our lifetimes

alkisky.bsky.social•11 days ago

It depends what Trump’s goal is. If it’s to crash the economy and cause a depression, it’s the perfect plan. It’s also a plan that enables corruption on a nearly unimaginable scale, if he’s able to sell tariff exceptions the same way he sells pardons. But its effect on inflation is hard to gauge.

alkisky.bsky.social•11 days ago

You’re wrong.

bonfire25.bsky.social•11 days ago

I'm never wrong :)

alkisky.bsky.social•11 days ago

Here’s why I believe that you’re wrong: https://bsky.app/profile/alkisky.bsky.social/post/3llzu5ec7vs27

vastin.bsky.social•10 days ago

If prices 'stabilize' it will only be due to massive demand destruction and economic contraction. Also not a desirable outcome

nikkibb56.bsky.social•10 days ago

Trump wants him to decrease but Powell needs to do what’s best for us. If that means interest rates go up. So be it. He’s the only voice of reason that is protected. (Hopefully)

vancouverislander.bsky.social•11 days ago

Inflation. 👍🏼

trublugem.bsky.social•11 days ago

Back in the 70s—Carter hired a guy as FED Chair who said he had to raise rates, I think back then we had the dreaded stagflation. Took years of raising rates. Interest rates went HIGH!!!! Like 15, 16% and it took YEARS before they went down.

1985 mortgage rate—13%

148others.bsky.social•10 days ago

No, he'll be forced to lower rates. The destruction of the economy from the tariffs will substantially offset potential price increases. And the inflation from tariffs is artificial and not tempered by higher rates. Loss of wealth and jobs will not only cool the economy, it will put it on ice

annoyingliberal.bsky.social•10 days ago

Whose going to buy bonds if the rates are so low? He certainly can't but the us deficit himself with massive inflation.

jackolbean.bsky.social•8 days ago

I agree

elbonian.bsky.social•10 days ago

Powell has a true "deer in the headlights" choice. Inflation says raise rates. Recession says lower rates. Powell will hold rates steady for at least the next meeting or two.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

Absolutely. But if hyperinflation comes-he'll have no choice.

elbonian.bsky.social•10 days ago

True. But as long as the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, we can't have true hyperinflation. Watch the central banks. If they swap to Chinese money, the US will move rapidly to dollar devaluation and hyperinflation.

myself11.bsky.social•10 days ago

He will follow Volker’s playbook I’m betting. That’s if trump doesn’t try to fire him. Which is likely illegal. But tackle inflation first then unemployment if anyone can get through to trump to stop the tariffs. Or god forbid republicans in congress actually do something!

tomowens67.bsky.social•10 days ago

Inflation due to tariffs can not be fixed with interest rate hikes. He's better off just leaving it alone.

monsterthews.bsky.social•10 days ago

I am on record predicting 10%.

carbonriver.bsky.social•11 days ago

Powell could just Leroy Jenkins things and push the rest of the board to go all in. Slash rates to 1% as Trump wants and let Trump explain to voters why their iPhone costs $3k now and the Burrito Taxi is $120.

vastin.bsky.social•10 days ago

Trump is easily crazy/stupid enough to push the US towards hyperinflation.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

100%

veteranjimo.bsky.social•10 days ago

While the pedo POTUS will sky scream and cry, and fight Powell at every step, sadly he'll have to raise rates.

adhdandd.bsky.social•10 days ago

No.

We are in a stock market free fall. We are headed towards recession. The labor market will shrink. In order to boost the economy, they will have to LOWER RATES to entice businesses to take loans, generate business, compete with tariff pricing, and increase labor buys. You’re way wrong.

vastin.bsky.social•10 days ago

Pretty sure he'll be paralyzed for a while as this goes wonky. But eventually yeah, he'll probably have to raise them and the market will choke even further as it will have clung so hard to the hope for a cut to save them.

americahasfallen25.bsky.social•10 days ago

You’re not the only one who thinks that. It’s looking like a reality. Trump will go ape shit and jail him.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

I meant "the markets" don't agree with me-but they're always WRONG.
Lol-he'll try to fire him and Powell will resist. Fun times.

keeblerd.bsky.social•10 days ago

If inflation begins to rise due to tariffs he will raise rates .

centralarbear.bsky.social•10 days ago

The only reason Trump wants rate cuts is his cronies took 5 year loans during the pandemic at low rates. They are now coming due and will have to be paid or refinanced at significantly higher rates. Just follow the money

richard-lionheart.bsky.social•11 days ago

I agree with you. I’ll qualify by saying it’s too early, but it appears that we’re staring at artificially imposed inflation on the order of 10%-30% across the board. Add recessionary pressure from a slowing economy.

The Fed could go either way, but they’ll err on the side of crushing inflation.

gurneyhalek.bsky.social•10 days ago

I don’t disagree. Tariffs are inflationary. With consumer confidence down, rgdp will decrease. It’s a recipe for stagflation and the FED will have to raise rates to tame it. Things will get worse and it won’t get better for a while.

dannydepratto.bsky.social•10 days ago

🎯🎯🎯

twitterrefugee63.bsky.social•10 days ago

I agree, simple economics

concerned2.bsky.social•11 days ago

Raise them...20%

ctimbers.bsky.social•10 days ago

He will and then he will be quickly removed and replaced with someone that will lower them.

alkalinesky.bsky.social•10 days ago

Totally agree.

Powell is probably on suicide watch about now. There is no good monetary policy answer for a government committing mass suicide.

pepe-mccormack.bsky.social•11 days ago

Inflation being the main mandate of the Fed, even prioritized over employment.

loomsync.bsky.social•10 days ago

I would say at least 1.0 point at least to keep inflation in check 😀

sazerac66.bsky.social•11 days ago

I agree with it. It's counter to basic economics, but so is this effed up tariff horseshit. The debt is going to get worse, unemployment will be lagging, but its coming and the dollar is weakening. Up is down.

ziggypudding.bsky.social•10 days ago

📌

stayinalive2.bsky.social•11 days ago

The FOTUS is already bullying him 'to lower rates now!'.
His term ends in 2026, but with Trump, who knows.
Hopefully Powell will stay strong and trump will not try to remove him.

spriddler.bsky.social•10 days ago

I mean, at some point I. The not too distant future, Inflation will force the Fed's hand

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

Yes

kenbalcombe.bsky.social•11 days ago

When every country in the world pulls their money out of the US, there is no other choice...
These tariffs will decimate the US dollar. It's going to get really bad

smithkdum.bsky.social•10 days ago

I would argue that IS REALLY BAD ALREADY!

vastin.bsky.social•10 days ago

We haven't even gotten to the point where major coalitions form to discuss weaning off the dollar as the exchange currency. That's going to happen soon and just the discussion will have devastating shocks.

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

And I'm waiting for China to manipulate the Yuan as they did during the first trade war in 2018. Just gonna keep buying #gold.

jayjay185.bsky.social•11 days ago

I think rates will remain constant with the possibility of an increase. The impact of tariffs of this magnitude is unknown. American manufacturers will raise prices in conjuction just to price gouge. It's also possible the dollar may drop in value which would signal the Fed to raise rates.

riz4robot.bsky.social•11 days ago

he can't raise rates when the economy is stalling
IMO
he said new admin making changes to:
trade
immigration
fiscal policy
regulation

lots and lotsa bouncing balls here
big bouncing balls

likely higher inflation and slower growth possibly persistent

samuelosinaike.bsky.social•10 days ago

The fed has a dual mandate.

1. Manage unemployment
2. Manage inflation

Tarrifs will cause price increases which means inflation goes up.

Stands to reason the fed will have to fight this.

#stagflation

gigiastro.bsky.social•10 days ago

But Powell will be soon replaced with Navarro

myself11.bsky.social•10 days ago

And people thought the Great Recession was bad! This has the makings to be a lot worse!

myself11.bsky.social•10 days ago

I think you’re right. I think he will follow the Volker playbook fighting Stagflation. Going after inflation first job growth 2nd. All because of trumps tariff fever swamp dream

22gh.bsky.social•10 days ago

Yeah, you’re probably right, he will have to- and then Trump will make him the enemy, a lot like he did with Fauci

bonfire25.bsky.social•10 days ago

He gives zero fucks about Trump now as he heads for the exits. He won't allow his legacy to be cemented in a recession.

22gh.bsky.social•10 days ago

Right, and he’s so right to feel that way too!

wstnmare.bsky.social•10 days ago

I agree

m0nkeyl1ce.bsky.social•10 days ago

I'm not sure. Raising rates is done to lower consumption, and the tariffs will already do that. Yes, prices will spike up, but they'll likely stabilize at a permanently higher, but not growing, rate.

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