Breaking character: Nate Silver has become what he used to hate: a middle-aged millionaire vibing evidence-free hot takes at an audience of right center ignoramuses.
But it’s worth remembering that 538 did a lot of good.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/
But it’s worth remembering that 538 did a lot of good.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/
Comments
To the contrary, he said it was close.
The article in 2016 on 538 was much more sober
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/
he missed the biggest story of the last fifteen years: the gop corrupted into a teeming mass of populist cretins, breaking the postwatergate detente of moneycons & segregationists.
Have you seen that clip from the Graham Norton Show where she interrupts another (less famous) guest's story to tell her own story?
Non-existent social skills.
No notes
They gave him a 30% chance, which is pretty much as good as you can give someone who's behind in the polls, and their writeups consistently emphasized how close the race was.
Witness how any time a politician gets in they don't like, it's the DNC's fault (and always the DNC, never the RNC), not their own voting choices' fault.
It's just this literally insane disassociative thinking.
Nate Silver hasn't been with 538 for about a year or so. This cut was just the journalists left. Nathaniel, Galen, etc. Silver has his own site and a version of his model that he owns the IP to.
And whether or not you’re an expert statistician, polls are useful for determining whether your messaging works and what your strengths/weaknesses are. That’s been lost in the whole conversation about polls, mostly by people who only understand the gamification of them.