Here is the @bankofcanada.bsky.social 's analysis of a the impact of a scenario with a 25% across the board US tariff, matched with a 25% retaliatory tariff by Canada. About 2.5% off real GDP in year 1; 1.5% off in year two, and adjusted by year 3. www.bankofcanada.ca/publications... - ThreadSky

kevinmilligan.bsky.social • 22 days ago

Here is the @bankofcanada.bsky.social 's analysis of a the impact of a scenario with a 25% across the board US tariff, matched with a 25% retaliatory tariff by Canada.

About 2.5% off real GDP in year 1; 1.5% off in year two, and adjusted by year 3.

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2025-01-29/in-focus-1/

Comments

r-floman.bsky.social•22 days ago

Declare a state of extra territorial economic conflict exists in all provinces and Ottawa exists and have all the provinces and the feds sign a statute between them to remove all interprovincial trade barriers until such time as normal relations re-occur or 5 years, at which time it can be renewed.

r-floman.bsky.social•22 days ago

Set up a all jurisdiction compliance adjudication body consisting of all the sovereigns .

pfriesen.bsky.social•22 days ago

I'm really curious what field I'll be working in 3 years from now, because I can't see southern Ontario manufacturing surviving past year 2 of 25% or more tariffs

iskokin.bsky.social•22 days ago

Where is development of American industry in this model? If one freezes existing factories and plants then the results are indeed devastating.

marinaadshade.bsky.social•21 days ago

Nothing on interest rates, which presumably increase in most scenarios. This is bad news for all of the five year mortgages that they locked into during COVID set to expire in the next two months.

marinaadshade.bsky.social•21 days ago

Meant to say twelve months, obviously don't expect anything that happen quickly.

kevinmilligan.bsky.social•22 days ago

In the face of a 2.5% drop in real GDP; regionally concentrated what should we do?

First thing on my mind is ease onramps onto EI. There's a playbook for that. See the 2016 EI extensions for regions affected by commodity market slowdown (ie Alberta).

We can do this.

https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2016/05/13/prime-minister-announces-changes-employment-insurance-three

chadleddy.bsky.social•22 days ago

Hi Professor. Any precedent for directing income from retaliatory tariffs to exporting firms hurt by the US tariffs?

nordicfolk.bsky.social•22 days ago

Hello also, thank you for the info, any wiggle room given lower tariffs on energy, for a federal export tax to build revenues for aid to reroute oil and gas to asian markets?

jean-b-anderson.bsky.social•22 days ago

We need a way to lower interest rates without jacking up housing prices...

ctrev3than.bsky.social•22 days ago

Time to remove internal trade barriers!

chicagoali.bsky.social•22 days ago

So now let’s add on the tariff on Mexico, the on on China, the threat of all the others…

legaljunkietx.bsky.social•21 days ago

i hate to say this, but if canada and mexico work around the US with china, we’re fucked.

johnroddick.bsky.social•21 days ago

Forget China … the US accounts for only around 11% of global trade so even if it was to put tariffs on everyone (which it won’t), 89% of global trade would carry on unaffected.

When China put tariffs on Australia, Australia found new markets - not immediately but other markets exist elsewhere.

legaljunkietx.bsky.social•21 days ago

yes. however, after last time, china started shifting towards trading more with latin america. that’s why trump wants panama.

every time trump gets saucy, he just pushes more and more partners towards china.

cardboardrevolution.com•21 days ago

We deserve it.

legaljunkietx.bsky.social•21 days ago

i agree 😞

maybe we need a “coming to jesus” moment to reflect on what giant douche bags we’ve been.

icyvr.bsky.social•22 days ago

Thanks for the analysis and perspective.

sweatgamerepeat.bsky.social•22 days ago

With the right policies (never a given) we can weather this and adjust. Will take a lot of effort and collective sacrifice but we need ti build in support for counter retaliation escalation and increasing the tariff from the US end

broxigar.daliban.co•22 days ago

📌

stucowan.bsky.social•22 days ago

Good thing our deficit is 2% of GDP, and not 6% and growing. Lots of room for government initiatives.

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