I know very little about Canadian politics, but what I'm gathering on here is that the Trump is both the news of the day almost 24/7 and also a wedge issue for the CPC. Sounds like they're kinda fucked
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They’re not “fucked”-but I think their prospects have been greatly diminished. However I think they’ve gone from biggest majority ever to a modest one….hoping we can whittle it down to a minority. Many NDP voters seem willing to line behind Libs under a new leader
Yep. The Liberal Party has been in power for a decade and everyone is sick of Trudeau; CPC were thermostatically headed for Assad margins but their leader is a smarmy ghoul who marinates in US culture war horseshit. Pre-Trump II it didn’t matter, but now he has the stink of the quisling on him.
He’ll probably still be PM after the next election sometime this year, but I don’t think he has the juice to walk the tightrope of holding his deranged Maple MAGA base and bringing in enough Toronto and Vancouver suburb normies - especially if Mark Carney success Trudeau as Liberal leader.
Last I saw CPC and Liberals were tied. Can't the liberals and NDP make a coalition or something? (This is where I remind you that I know ~nothing about Canadian parliament.)
It's looking like the NDP are collapsing in support so the Liberals could be consolidating the centre-left and then just run the table on the close ridings, with the Conservatives over-preforming in rural western areas
The problem is vote splitting in our first past the post system. In 2011 the NDP, Greens and Liberals got a majority of the vote nationally but the Conservatives got 40% and won enough ridings to get a majority. If the Liberals are tied then maybe we get a liberal Minority but it's a real who knows
The interesting thing is that the CPC runs up Assad-level vote totals in the west, so there's a reasonable chance that tied vote totals are incredibly inefficiently distributed to turn into seats for them. (This is less true for the Libs and NDs, but they run into vote splitting against each other.)
The inefficient distribution scenario happened with the most recent election; the CPC took a plurality of votes but not seats. Might have happened in the previous one, too?
The CPC actually got close to an equal proportion of seats to votes i.e. about 33%. The Liberals got something like 45% of the seats on 33% if the vote. If they had won 10 more seats they would have had a majority.
In theory, yes - and that’s actually been the de facto arrangement since the 2021 election, as it’s a minority parliament. But formal coalitions are very rare (since it’s not a PR system) and a lot of it depends on the regional distribution of votes and seats.
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