I’m no fan of gambling…
But I have an insatiable appetite for numbers; think betting markets can sometimes be a useful proxy for political polling; and have enjoyed making small $$ exploiting arbitrage in odds (like $6.50 odds on Monique Ryan’s win).
I do a 🧵 like this once an election.
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But I have an insatiable appetite for numbers; think betting markets can sometimes be a useful proxy for political polling; and have enjoyed making small $$ exploiting arbitrage in odds (like $6.50 odds on Monique Ryan’s win).
I do a 🧵 like this once an election.
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Comments
Huge redistribution of the electorate narrows the margin from 6.4% to just over 3.2%, adding Glen Iris and Malvern East.
ALP is down 5.3% in Victoria on 2PP.
Allen is an excellent fundraiser & good campaigner who was hamstrung by Frydenberg sucking resources out of her electorate in 2022.
They won’t be voting against her. They will be voting against the now-damaged brand she stands under.
It’s basically voters shifting back to where they were in 2016/2019
Voices of Chisholm has emerged, and I think it has the potential to create longer term change from 2027/8 onwards. Difficult seat though. High ESL & disengagement rate.
I am simply discussing the bits and bobs in political betting markets as they stand right now that I find interesting, and sometimes weird.
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I reckon the odds are right here – Emanuele Cicchiello and Katie Allen are likely to be elected (/ returned) to parliament in Aston and Chisholm in 2025.
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Other similar contests such as Katter in Kennedy are similar no-brainers.
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Coalition has zero chance on preferences though. $7.25??
5/..
Suburban Ryan is held by Greens on 2.65%.
QLD polling shows a ~2% drop in Labor’s primary.
Greens need to pick up those voters ahead of the LNP, or see prefs drop.
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Across 3 levels of government on the northern beaches – local, state, federal – there are 1/15, 1/3 and 0/2 Liberals now vs 10/15, 2/3 and 2/2 independents.
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Nailed it. Electorate won't notice though.
The number of people who actually tune into parliamentary speeches is <1% of the electorate.
We either need to support this stuff with grassroots action, or paid advertising
The more content produced and disseminated through social media, the more we shift consumption
Her campaign is MUCH larger than 2022. I’ll be in Drouin on the 16th of February to lead a doorknocking team for a Day of Action.
Leonard needs to shift 6% off ALP (likely already gone) + 2% off LIB.
Broadbent running should split pref flows to LIB to tune of ~2%.