My favourite part of this conspiracy theory is the Schrödinger’s voter bit:
Voters are simultaneously so sophisticated they’re watching polls; but so unsophisticated to be manipulated by them.
The truth is a third of Australians avoid news, and most news consumed is sports, weather & entertainment
Voters are simultaneously so sophisticated they’re watching polls; but so unsophisticated to be manipulated by them.
The truth is a third of Australians avoid news, and most news consumed is sports, weather & entertainment
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Australians spend 60 million nights per year camping - av ~2 nights each.
Google activity for political topics is <5% of this.
On this VERY rough scale, an average Australian pays 7min attention per week.
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A small % of consumers account for MOST of that 7 minutes a week of political news consumption.
There are around 17,228,900 voters.
3.2% of voters.
Conspiracies to manipulate the top 3.2% of engaged Australians make little sense.
In 2013, 78% couldn’t name the Federal Treasurer at the previous election.
Engagement with political news has fallen substantially since then.
We can validate all this is true through doorknock data collection.
The fact an independent candidate (or volunteer) shows up to ask what they can do to better represent someone is the antedote for disengagement.
Disengagement + engagement works.
Where it’s harder is where it leverages attention platforms - eg the “No” vote’s use of TikTok in 2023 DID work.
Donating $10 helps an IND campaign raise awareness by showing digital 1,000 ads.
More influential (works great on neighbours!) is hosting a yard sign for a candidate.
Next step up is speaking to neighbours.
Next is speaking to them at scale (doorknocking).
But doorknocking (for example) can swing somewhere between 2-30% of voters.
Just one of the MANY teams out in #Goldstein last weekend.
⛈️ wasn’t slowing anyone down.
#auspol
Far too many of posturing Tim