I had a nice, if foreboding, sense-of-impending doom-filled chat with Matt Stieb @nymag.com about my concerns with the current H5N1 situation. Human H5N1 cases on the rise, infected cows and birds everywhere, while seasonal flu is surging—really not loving how it's going nymag.com/intelligence... - ThreadSky

angierasmussen.bsky.social • 95 days ago

I had a nice, if foreboding, sense-of-impending doom-filled chat with Matt Stieb @nymag.com about my concerns with the current H5N1 situation.

Human H5N1 cases on the rise, infected cows and birds everywhere, while seasonal flu is surging—really not loving how it's going
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/h5n1-bird-flu-mutation-louisiana.html

Comments

rebelmink.bsky.social•95 days ago

Excellent & clear summary of which parts of the current outbreak are caused for concern! Straight to the top of my pinned post on FB.

joostvanneerven.bsky.social•95 days ago

Are you aware of any studies ongoing to test if the current H5N1 vaccines offer protection to B3.13 and D1.1 ? Would be very relevant to know how they could be used in case clusters start to occur.

cjayesq.bsky.social•95 days ago

Why not the big one? Because not novel?

angierasmussen.bsky.social•95 days ago

No, that means this virus isn’t currently causing a pandemic

cjayesq.bsky.social•95 days ago

Ah gotcha! Thanks!

connorcdc.bsky.social•95 days ago

What is considered a high/low level of flu vaccine uptake? These are the current stats for England, which is roughly 1/3 of the population (I think)

johnhatchard.bsky.social•94 days ago

Nearly 700 herds in California — or 71% of all herds — have caught H5N1 since late August ...

Article thread ⏬ 3 min

lucasgonzalez.bsky.social•95 days ago

Does the uncertainty feel to you similar to what we've had in these past many years, but with more rolling of the dice & more variety? We still can't predict if it would be severe or not, even if it were reassortment rather than mutation? I ask 'cos I'm working on #H5N1BadSoonScenario (a scenario).

angierasmussen.bsky.social•95 days ago

I’m a little confused about your question, what do you mean “similar to what we’ve had…”? Similar in what sense?

No, you can’t predict severity based on the information we have now.

lucasgonzalez.bsky.social•95 days ago

"What we've had" with H5N1: we feel closer to the cliff, then it ebbs away again. This has happened since 1998. But this time it feels (to me at least) less likely that the threat will recede. Thanks!

lucasgonzalez.bsky.social•95 days ago

I work more as a catastrophologist (way out if: https://appropedia.org/Aerosol_pandemics/H5N1BadSoonScenario), _not_ as a catastrophist (no predictions from me!). But your educated opinion I do listen to. Thanks!

minorheretic.bsky.social•95 days ago

People talk about low probability high impact events and high probability low impact events, but H5N1 seems like a medium-high probability absurdly high impact event. Even a CFR of 10% would be crushing, and it has exhibited 10% to 48%. 99% don't care, won't take precautions.

ba55fr33k.bsky.social•95 days ago

Well theres already 3 different vaccines.. and a government thats been dragging its feet on this for years now

also, we have advanced genomics and a reasonable level of monitoring now

what im more interested in is how long has it been circulating unnoticed

markmcco.bsky.social•94 days ago

1 hospitalized in US. Quit!

withloveperiod.bsky.social•95 days ago

Stood and stared at the empty shelves where the eggs used to be located at my local grocery store (northern CA)

Zero eggs.

Definitely don't feel like we learned anything from COVID #H5N1

alextheis.bsky.social•95 days ago

📌

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