I don’t think so — and it is not because of tanks or aircraft. In May 40 French command and control were too slow to win a mobile battle. If it became static they had a decent chance, but as long as it remained fluid they were just out of position all the time.
And Gamelin way overcommitted his sparse reserves in the first phase of the battle. Speaking as a Belgian — it would have been far wiser for the French to let the Belgians and Dutch fend for themselves. The swing forward of the French left was politically sound but militarily disastrous.
It’s always a bit uncomfortably revealing that “what if Barbarossa succeeded?” is a far more popular alt-history question than “what if Fall Gelb failed?” (Or even, what if someone had decided to take a train rather than take up their friend’s offer of a flight home and they stuck with Fall Rot?)
The boring truth is that if Gelb fails you just end up with some period of largely static warfare, not to 14-18 standards but some period of months where both sides just kind of hang out and build up forces for what happens next.
I have as much idea as anyone else (ie none) but my gut says no, the war ends more like 1918 than 1945 with a political revolution in Germany and a negotiated (or at least less than unconditional) peace.
But an Allied army that was not really prepared to attack, and two groups of political leaders that were already prepared to fight a Long War strategy. Very possible they just hang out until the Germans try again at some point in late-40 or 41
But with a very much more mobilised France and Britain - agreed that Germany had only to be lucky once, but what the USSR would be doing at this time is the great imponderable
(FWIW, I agree militarily just “still having France in the game for a further six months” complicates massively the calculus in predicting how other countries like Italy or Romania would have behaved)
(Though having the former stay neutral probably on balance net beneficial for Germany)
It is amazing if you start listing out some of the small things that would need to happen for it to fail. This one counter attack works just marginally better here, this counterattack happens 12 hours earlier over here, that one unit repels that one small German attack on the Meuse, etc.
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(Though having the former stay neutral probably on balance net beneficial for Germany)