It's always surprising to see this misinformation. "Most" climate models do include these "basic feedbacks", as outlined already in AR5 Ch7, and more recently https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023JD039427 https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/1587/2024/ (and I could cite another 50...).
Comments
We can only hope that the feedbacks won't be so extreme, as models for sure can't tell currently but observations show that we get here a massive feedback reaction!
°C > SSP5-8.5
W/m2 > SSP5-8.5
CO2e PPM > SSP5-8.5
But it’s not the models that are the problem. It’s the parameters used as inputs. The climate sensitivity being a key parameter.
"Source, Migration Pathways, and Atmospheric Release of Geologic Methane Associated With the Complex Permafrost Regimes of the Outer Mackenzie River Delta, Northwest Territories, Canada"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JF007515
"Natural gas is actually migrating under permafrost, and could see methane emissions skyrocket if it escapes"; https://www.frontiersin.org/news/2023/12/13/natural-gas-is-actually-migrating-under-permafrost-and-could-see-methane
Wait here for the study on this expedition!
Spanish scientists discovered massive methane plumes erupting from the seabed—frozen for 20,000 years, now destabilized by warming oceans and post-glacial rebound.
This isn’t just a climate feedback loop.
Fun fact I: in the literature its sometimes called: "vicious cycle" - the worst kind of feedback loops you really do not want
Fun fact II: we get now a rising number of mutually amplifying vicious cycles
Sorry, hard to take this shit anymore seriously!
Many serious climate scientists still insist that despite being above 1.5C for 3 years the earth’s systems don’t do tipping points until the Excel spreadsheet says it’s been like this for 15 years.
What a joke.
Fun fact_ west antarctica could have reached a tipping point - so we could be already be in a runaway global warming as YOU DO NOT KNOW!
"Fact-Check: is an Arctic “Methane Bomb” about to go off?" https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/05/13/fact-check-is-an-arctic-methane-bomb-about-to-go-off/
"Recent methane surges reveal heightened emissions from tropical inundated areas"
When was sea ice decline predicted to happen? Middle or end of the century in models???
"Low latency global carbon budget reveals a continuous decline of the land carbon sink during the 2023/24 El Nino event"; https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.09189
"Observation-constrained projections reveal longer-than-expected dry spells"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07887-y
And its a mutual reinforcing feedback between warmer surface oceans, upper ocean stratification, and clouds feeding on each other...
And if you have a parametrization handy to include permafrost thaw given uncertainties in the overall C amount, we’re all ears. Nobody before you has ever tried.
That’s due to active disinformation from some famous climate scientists.
There are accurate models referred to by dishonest climate scientists as “hot models” that more accurately reflects this feedback loop.
Feel free to include the hot models and exclude some cold models from the ensemble.
An Earth system in motion produces lots of model errors...