Speaking as someone that watches markets all day I couldn’t disagree more that this reaction is bizarre. - ThreadSky

peark.es • 58 days ago

Speaking as someone that watches markets all day I couldn’t disagree more that this reaction is bizarre.

Reminder about the concept of *new information* driving prices at the margin.

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joshuamwilliamson.bsky.social•58 days ago

So Tesla reports profits down 71% and today their stock is soaring like a balloon? +18.96 now.
This isn't bizarre at all?

gritpump.bsky.social•58 days ago

The hot air and empty promises from their CEO last night elicited this insane and dumbfounding response. Sheep are gonna get fleeced. 🤷

graphmangraphics.com•58 days ago

Elon buying low

daytontalk.bsky.social•58 days ago

Irrational, nothing about today's rumors, even if true, improve Tesla's prospects in the slightest.

kmthurman.bsky.social•58 days ago

The reaction is expected but still underpricing the impact of tariffs.

peark.es•58 days ago

Maybe! Maybe not!

kmthurman.bsky.social•58 days ago

Yeah this my point: Markets reacting to new information is expected, but their ability to predict the future — when not causing it — is pretty bad. Tariffs is literally the perfect example from Nov to Present.

imchuckmiller.bsky.social•58 days ago

🤣🤣🤣🤣
That’s a position I endorse

norcalgardenofeden.bsky.social•57 days ago

This is the mark of the truly humble market watcher…

robpollard45.bsky.social•58 days ago

Yep, people *want* things to be normal. They are desperate to believe companies worth trillions under the market system & rules that existed through 2024 are still worth that much

It won't be until Q3 numbers come in, and tariff reality truly hits, that everyone will realize, "Oh...he did break it"

kmthurman.bsky.social•58 days ago

I mean the markets-Trump-recession relationships has too many feedback loops to confidently predict anything. But that’s generally my point — the markets are half the reason he thought he could do what he did. And they are underpricing renewed overconfidence.

cargobiker530.bsky.social•57 days ago

There was a significant drop in container shipping from China in March which means store shelves will start to lack products in May or June. Nothing Trump is going to say can make up for two months of reduced shipping.

robpollard45.bsky.social•57 days ago

Yes, the timing is inexact, bc its dependent upon how much capital and storage space each biz were able to spare, but certainly sometime in the summer, the extra widgets that biz was able to buy in Jan are going to be used up & to replace them will cost a 54% tariff, and grim reality will set in.

yassa13.bsky.social•58 days ago

think non markets types often have issues with timeframes.This incrementally reduces recession risk, but we’re probably still heading into one (maybe we go from 90% to 75% chance, or something).Stocks *should* rally on that incremental improvement in the near term… even if new lows possible later

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