We can't hand-wave entirely the energy side though, can we ? - ThreadSky

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fabienbossy.bsky.social • 94 days ago

We can't hand-wave entirely the energy side though, can we ?

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Think the German problem is that it’s experienced so many different shocks at roughly the same time. Rates, energy, China, Russia. Now possibly tariffs.

tylermacro.bsky.social•94 days ago

Yeah I don’t trust the accounting that shows a “crisis” v much

This is an actually well measured aggregate—nominal compensation of employees

What’s the crisis?

domw.bsky.social•94 days ago

Think you’re the first person to use the word “crisis” in this thread, tbh.

Would you say the UK is free of any problems? Because the chart looks very similar.

tylermacro.bsky.social•94 days ago

Sure, the nature of those problems is the issue

For Germany, you suffered a generational terms of trade shock, since reversed, that you tried to offset with some version of price caps

domw.bsky.social•94 days ago

I’m inclined to think it’s much more than that. But think we’ll probably just have to disagree.

gauravsaroliya.bsky.social•94 days ago

And didn’t have a sufficiently generous policy response

tylermacro.bsky.social•94 days ago

I’d rather have rates at -1 than a generous policy response

gauravsaroliya.bsky.social•94 days ago

I can sympathise with fading this pop in the schatz yield this morning. But -1 is a step too far for me currently!

tylermacro.bsky.social•94 days ago

Yeah,

They should also immediately cancel the MSR

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