My prediction is that Marner will get $13M and the Insider justification will be that this put his cap percentage exactly halfway between what Nylander and Matthews got when they signed.
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
$12.5m another $500k - $1m in playoff tied bonuses. His history, regardless of the narrative, is that he scores in the playoffs, so it should be palatable. A minor put up or shut up, that still puts him $1.25 above Willy as a base which is absolutely not unreasonable.
Huh I think right between Matthews and Nylander is actually a solid assessment of Marner. He out produces 88 most years and has an entire high end defensive element to his game. Not so much saying that 16 is right next to 34, but that the wickets on 34 and 88 are far enough apart that 16 splits them
Like Marner at 13.5% of the cap makes more sense to me than 14%. I recognize that's just 500K but it's the difference between a fair deal and Marner pulling the Leafs fully to his side of the number again.
Yeah I don’t really personally have a lot of time for the “it would feel better for me” takes… I just personally don’t care. Sign the very good player. What I would be furious about is if the team fucked up and he signed for 500k more than 13.5% elsewhere lol. Congrats on the “win” over the player~
It's not so much about feelings. It's a business. It's more about how the perception of caving affects future deals. Like what reason does Knies have to believe them when they say "this is all there is" when they've historically just met the player's ask eventually?
Yes and I’m saying the value of getting to swing around your iron balls in future negotiations is not NEARLY worth the value of Having Mitch Marner. It’s not close. Sure we can talk about how it would be nice to “win”, a bonus, but there’s no world where letting him walk isn’t a failure.
I think thos under sells Matthews tbh. He's such a unicorn. 6'3", 220lbs centre with Hart, three rockets and was a selke finalist last year. I think the wickets are wider than Marner splitting the difference.
Not a crazy assessment either, there’s room for differing opinion for sure. Marner’s also been a Selke finalist which is what I think has him clearing Nylander by a wider margin than people imply these days at least.
Also 12.9 or 13 by 8 would be different than the same AAV by 5, too.
Sure but it's hard to gauge what the value of extra years is right now because Marner would be trading more decline years but also selling years now with the expectation of a high cap increase. Matthews made the bet that the increase will outway his age decline. But its not guaranteed.
Eh I don’t think you quite hit that curve on star players when they’ll expire under 35 and the cap is rocketing up the way it is. Matthews number would have been higher at 8 years, I’m pretty confident on that fact.
I don't disagree that that's where the number lands. Given that he would be the highest paid player on 28 of 32 teams at that number, if he crashes and burns in the playoffs should that be the number? Or more specifically should that be the number on this team as structured?
Comments
Also 12.9 or 13 by 8 would be different than the same AAV by 5, too.