The best thing to do is to ignore all the talk of ceasefires and peace deals and prepare for a scenario in which Europe has to support Ukraine alone in a war that continues for a long time.
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I agree. Europe has more people, more money and better technology than Russia. They can do this. We should stay in the fight as well, but even if we’re out Europe should handle this.
Well said.
In that specific case, though, I'm worried about HIMARS ammunition.
If the US isn't willing to provide it, Europe won't be able to compensate.
War will become much more difficult for Ukraine, but it's possible, at least for a while. Anyway, the future seems very foggy, so lots of unexpected scenarios can unfold, including the US restarting support after a while. What is sure is a Russian decisive victory is uncertain.
It may not be the flight path but in a similar vein in which an unstable Austria-Hungary pulled an imperialistic Germany into WWI, a deteriorating Russia may prompt China to vest itself into a then much wider conflict. For that, current preparedness is thoroughly inadequate.
Nobody asked Crimea, Donestk, and Lugansk in 1991 if they wanted to be part of an independent Ukrainian state. They were compelled to accept this status by the United States and its allies. Each of the regions within Ukraine should have had self-determination rights in 1991.
Furthermore, Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk were right to re-evaluate their status within Ukraine after the 2014 regime change. At the very least, there should have been a new constitutional convention that ensured that the interests of all regions were being respected.
Then after the fall of the user, all regions in Russia should have that liberty to. After all, Russia is no state, just a collection of hard ruled populations.
Crimea on the other hand, has always had its own identity.
Donbass,Luhansk and Crimea are Ukraine.
Regions in Russia have more language rights than what was offered to Donetsk and Lugansk.
You can't force Donbas and Crimean people to be part of a nationalist Ukraine. It's just wrong. They form distinct societies which have the right to choose their own collective identity.
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In that specific case, though, I'm worried about HIMARS ammunition.
If the US isn't willing to provide it, Europe won't be able to compensate.
Crimea on the other hand, has always had its own identity.
Donbass,Luhansk and Crimea are Ukraine.
You can't force Donbas and Crimean people to be part of a nationalist Ukraine. It's just wrong. They form distinct societies which have the right to choose their own collective identity.
Also very much the spirit of yesterday's letter with Ben Tallis and company.
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