I don’t think recession is inevitable, but looking at a long-term chart of housing units under construction I’m struck by the fact that in the other 4 cycles where we got a big peak-to-trough decline we had a recession along the way:
Comments
Log in with your Bluesky account to leave a comment
I'm sure this applies to the previous cycles to some extent, but so many projects were just sitting waiting for one thing or another it made the 'under construction' look higher than it was relative to the true economic impact. So the impact of the decline might be less than it would seem.
I'm guessing part of this is a vicious cycle where the recession impacts beget less housing being built and so on which makes this look even worse? But yeah, not great!
Comments