A lot of "smart" people on all sides seem convinced that Trump has no core ideological principles and merely cons his followers into thinking he does. Their conclusion from that is that he would be unwilling to make a truly unpopular decision based on principle.
The tariffs are a sideshow compared to the compromise of the US Treasury payment system. The US is defaulting on its obligations. How safe are USTs as an asset class now? We are on the precipice of a collapse.
I think under the dumb major questions doctrine his powers are more limited. Not clear how you distinguish student loan forgiveness given the economic impact and weakness of the pretext.
I did listen. The executive orders STILL STAND, and currently several of those executive orders have frozen funding for research. I know this because I am living the actual material consequences of it. It is not theoretical. The US Govt has violated federal contract law. Klein is oblivious.
selective hearing by many is what has sustained turmp to this point - maybe it will end now, but everyone will be responding to his actions now, one way or another
In defense of markets/businesses, they know Trump lies a lot, and they know he’s pro-tariffs, but they believed above all Trump has their back. There’s a trust/betrayal dynamic on the GOP side that doesn’t exist to the same extent on the Dem side.
From a professional standpoint, it’s notable that either way it was going to be seen as inevitable in retrospect. 1) *of course* he ordered 25% tariffs, he literally said he would, or 2) *of course* he didn’t do it, it was an obvious negotiating tactic. Either way: How could you be so naive?
There is a strong belief that Trump will be restrained by financial markets and potential and real market reaction to any of his policies. I understand the idea, but in the second term he's surrounded by let-Trump-be-Trump MAGA people not traditional country-club Republicans. So maybe not.
Conor he did this in 2018. It partially caused a 19%+ decline in markets back then. The self imposed blindness on the part of huge market actors over the last six months has been like watching a car crash - or I guess a plane falling out of the sky to be topical.
These people are no different than run of the mill MAGA. They think they have special insight into Trump and know what he's REALLY going to do. That usually coincides with what they want him to do, strangely enough.
Is this more a reaction from Dems being dumbstruck that this multiverse timeline is playing out? I'm not aware of many Republicans being upset or questioning their vote.
Takes time for the market to learn his behavior in his new term. Market probably shakes off the news quickly in the next few weeks. In that sense, no shocks.
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Heads. Rolling.
Buckle up.