If I had to guess, the WSJ got a leak from OpenAi and the Information got the leak from Microsoft. In any case, the WSJ is the second piece, which could mean someone got wind of another story. Microsoft “indicates” They’d take 35% - did they actually? www.wsj.com/tech/ai/open... - ThreadSky

edzitron.com • 5 days ago

If I had to guess, the WSJ got a leak from OpenAi and the Information got the leak from Microsoft. In any case, the WSJ is the second piece, which could mean someone got wind of another story. Microsoft “indicates” They’d take 35% - did they actually?
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-microsoft-rift-hinges-on-how-smart-ai-can-get-82566509?mod=tech_lead_pos2

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minerva1.bsky.social•5 days ago

Why do they all look so weird? I can’t get past it.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

Nice WSJ chart. OpenAI is trying to redefine AGI as “something that could theoretically make $100 billion of profit,” and Microsoft is saying “no that’s stupid.” If Microsoft leaked to The Information, it was intentional that they let slip they thought OpenAI would die when they invested. Grim!

mentoch.bsky.social•5 days ago

If they made 100 billion in profit how long would that fund them for?

edzitron.com•5 days ago

Well let’s start with the word “profit” in this sentence - that is not going to happen

mentoch.bsky.social•5 days ago

Yah, missed that, and read it as revenue.

Good fucking luck.

edzitron.com•5 days ago

Yeah but it looks like their plan is to be like “yeah it’s capable of doing that” rather than it actually doing it

gaseousagent.bsky.social•5 days ago

I'm going to open a bar, it's *capable* of making 6 billion dollars in profit if everyone in the world comes and spends a dollar!

So, what do you think? Pretty water-tight imo. Ready to invest?

somecody.bsky.social•5 days ago

very similar to my nfl career as a 43 year old man

reefraf.bsky.social•5 days ago

If OpenAI declares genAI, then it might actually be tricky for MS to refute. Just look at the recent case against Anthropic. The judge who ruled in that case was already referring to AI as if it was a person who "wants" to do something. If the case is assigned to a senile judge like that...

vincentp.me•5 days ago

Are we finally getting to the point where the mask is slipping and people are starting to admit this spend on AI is unsustainable for the value it brings?!

edzitron.com•5 days ago

Honestly, it’s not this, but SOMETHING is going to break them, unless OpenAI just goes through an absolutely incredible run of luck, it may not be possible for them to go for-profit, and even if they do, it may not be possible in time. And even if it is, Microsoft has to say yes!

edzitron.com•5 days ago

After that, they (OpenAI) need SoftBank to raise $20bn to $30bn *this year*, and then another $17bn in 2027. they also somehow launch a consumer tech device? And build stargate? All of this shit? How? Really? They’re burning billions

lasombra-br.bsky.social•5 days ago

I have the impression OpenAI didn't plan for:

1. Competitors catching up as fast as they did
2. MSFT starting to control the tap

Both of these, IMHO, could explain the pressure for them to become profitable and/or less dependant on a single cloud vendor as soon as possible.

b3d0u1n.bsky.social•5 days ago

Summer storms … it has been too long of a run … let’s have some rain

zerocrates.org•5 days ago

that lack of a "could" for altman in the conversion part seems nonideal for him

amyhoy.bsky.social•5 days ago

i like “declare AGI” like it’s a thumb war

yaseppochi.bsky.social•5 days ago

I’d like to see them try. I bet Microsoft already have a ton of expertise in “prompt engineering”. Publish a white paper entitled “10 Prompts That Prove OpenAGI Is Anything But”.

dvgeebees.bsky.social•5 days ago

I....declare.....AGIIIIIIIII

amyhoy.bsky.social•5 days ago

and i demand a shrubbery!

dvgeebees.bsky.social•5 days ago

Nii!

dauntus.bsky.social•5 days ago

Or bankruptcy

sataithegray.bsky.social•5 days ago

Dumb war? ;-)

vortexegg.com•5 days ago

i was saying two years ago that they were just going to get the computer “legally declared agi” for financial purposes lmao

b3d0u1n.bsky.social•5 days ago

Custody battles can get wild

nasicournus.bsky.social•5 days ago

Scientists and philosophers have long feared the moment an AI becomes so powerful that it makes $100B

plaguedaemon.bsky.social•5 days ago

Declare AGI? How are we letting this conversation get this nonsensical?

mockingjaysongs.bsky.social•4 days ago

I’d *love* if Microsoft sued OpenAI about the fraud in these AGI quests.

Litigation would reveal how the entire Bay Area got taken over by think tanks pressing to achieve the singularity to “save humanity”

kevinboueri.bsky.social•5 days ago

Satya, back in February, on the Dwarkesh podcast called AGI milestones “nonsensical benchmark hacking” lol

7leaguebootdisk.bsky.social•5 days ago

Good old days, OpenAI would already be floating face down in a river with a knife in their back. Example: 3com had a deal where they'd pay Microsoft for every copy of lanmanager they sold, in exchange for a % of the sale. Microsoft gave it away, and thus got paid every time.

vicmrodriguez.bsky.social•5 days ago

i know this isn't the point of it all, and it's both petty and inconsequential in the end - but why does Altman always make... THAT face?

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